In January, the “inventor” of the yield-curve indicator—Campbell Harvey of Duke University—suggested that the inversion of the 10Y/3M spread was “flashing a false signal,” and a U.S. recession would be avoided. But as the inversion deepened, Harvey abandoned that view, moving squarely into the recession camp. We respect his flexibility. Today, we have another economist casting doubt on her own…
The Leuthold Group: Putting The “Sahm Rule” To The Test
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