Cross-asset strategy: Higher rates was one of late 2020’s most-consensus views, but higher rate volatility was not. Hence, this week’s broad deleveraging across Equities, the EM complex and parts of Commodities as the DM Bond sell-off became disorderly. US money markets have been too quick to price the beginning of the end of easy money, which is one reason…
The Beginning of the End of Easy Money is Starting to Look Overpriced
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Weekly Warm-up: Operating Leverage Cuts Both Ways as Inflation Peak Signals Margin Risk
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The rise in inflation and the Fed’s reaction to it has been a real headwind for valuations this year....
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J.P. Morgan View: CPI release is a positive, but recession risks remain high!
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Cross-Asset Strategy: The October US CPI release delivered the largest downward inflation surprise since the start of the pandemic,...
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Weekly State of the Market: Market Malaise Manifests
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
“An investor’s job is not to avoid the pain but to endure it.” If you would like to...
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Merrill Lynch: Excessive Consumer Demand
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Macro Strategy—Businesses have responded to unprecedented U.S. consumer-demand strength and rising capacity utilization rates by bringing real equipment investment...
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Morgan Stanley’s: Weekly Warm-up: Time for a More “Defensive” Quality Tilt
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
The market appears ready to take on a more defensive character as we experience a meaningful deceleration in earnings...
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Fundstrat: March CPI Preview
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Last week was “stress test” of sorts for equity markets. The combination of “hot” ISM, coupled with Fed members...
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End of Year Valuation Re-Rating With Volatility Abound
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
Who needs a reset? Is it the S&P 500 (SPX), the forward price/earnings (P/E) multiple, the Nasdaq (COMPQ), the...
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Summer Doldrums Starting To Surface
Seth Golden, , Research Reports, 0
If it’s been said once it has been said millions of times, “everyone would be a buyer if stocks...
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