Goldman Sachs expects the overall size of the next round of fiscal support to total $1.5 trillion, with approx $1 trillion due before year-end and they “continue to believe the odds are high that Congress will enact a fiscal package before leaving for August recess”

US SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADER SCHUMER: WE ARE CURRENTLY PRETTY FAR APART ON THE COVID-19 STIMULUS DISCUSSIONS. HOWEVER, I DO REMAIN OPTIMISTIC THAT WE WILL FIND A STIMULUS SOLUTION.

NATALLIANCE: “.. the stimulus package from the Senate looks ugly and inefficient to curtail covid weakness for now.. And is so far away from the pork filled House package, we are skeptical that it gets done this week.. but we have seen Mnuchin pull a rabbit out of his hat before”

Morgan Stanley: This past week, US L/S hedge funds added to both gross and net risk on the week per the MS PB Content team – weighted gross is now back to the 97th %ile since 2010 while net leverage is up to 53%, the 65th %ile since 2010 and the highest since Aug 2018. This is the first time US L/S gross and net have both been this elevated s…[Read more]

MS Mike Wilson: Summing It Up: 2020≠ 1999
Going back to the1999 analogy, today’s recessionary environment is very different from 1999 when the economy was booming and most companies were engaging in classic late-cycle behavior that entails excessive spending on capex, including technology goods. As a result, many of the largest tech companies w…[Read more]

Thrasher Analytics: Volatility: We move this week into Vol expiration with spot VIX sitting just under 26 as of Friday. The elevated Vol curve is one of the reasons inst’l investors have been kept out of this market due to risk management protocols. The Volatility of VIX (VVIX) began to move higher late-last week and several of the inputs of the V…[Read more]