Goldman: “we now expect real GDP growth of 0% in Q1 (from +0.7%), -5% in Q2 (from 0%), +3% in Q3 (from +1%), and +4% in Q4 (from +2¼%), with further strong gains in early 2021. This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4% (from 1.2%).”

GS: There is no systemic risk
Feedback from conference call held Sunday.

1. 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it’s very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

2. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M…[Read more]

JPM Mislav Matejka, head of equity strategy: we could see a more sustained rally if/when

1. We get a much more aggressive fiscal policy response
2. If the original problem, virus outbreak, starts showing clear signs of seasonality/peaking out
3. If markets overshoot in pricing in of a recession, something which we think we are still some way away…[Read more]

The only modern comparable to now is 1987
– $SPX fell 20% in one day, rose 15% the next 2 days, then returned to the low the following week
– Then rose 15% again and then retested the original low 6 weeks later
– It was up 25% a year later and back at prior highs 2 years later

The CBOE VIX Index closed at 75.5 today, the 4th highest close ever. In every instance from this/similar levels, the S&P 500 rallied by +10% immediately thereafter & over just 1 or 2 days

GOLDMAN: sets new mid-year S&P 500 target of 2450, “(15% below the current level and 28% below the market peak.)”