BofA on capitulation
March capitulation: historic $284bn out of bonds and $658bn into cash in past 4

weeks ($64bn out of equities = sideshow).

Bond capitulation: record month of redemptions from IG bonds ($156bn), EM debt ($47bn), Municipal bonds ($24bn), HY bonds ($23bn).

The consensus analyst estimate pegs the decline in payrolls for March at 150,000, although the range of estimates suggests the result is anybody’s guess. The most pessimistic estimate pegs the decline at 1.25 million, while the most optimistic analyst expects an increase of 100,000 payrolls. As with everything else, the wide range of estimates i…[Read more]

Futures openly slightly higher this evening, sideways action near-term would be ideal, but keep in mind that VIX at roughly 60 equates to ~4% daily moves on SPX

GOLDMAN: “We left our March nonfarm payroll estimate unchanged at -180k (mom sa) and our private payroll estimate also unchanged at -200k.”

Report Trump has signed off on plan to reduce tariffs for 3 months

Larry Fink Letter: “In my 44 years in finance, I have never experienced anything like this”
1. Many of BLK’s clients are looking to increase their equity allocation in this market; “Tremendous opportunities to be had in today’s markets”

2. Reevaluating assumptions: “our infatuation with just-in-time supply chains or our reliance on international…[Read more]

Goldman Sachs: 1. Last week buyback was tracking 0.6x vs 2019 ADTV, 0.6x vs 2018 ADTV, and 0.9x vs 2017 ADTV.

2. We estimate ~90% of the S&P 500 are now in their blackout period

The new bull market doesn´t need no buyback support….

JPM: risk of a wave of heavy hedge fund redemptions low
1. Risk of a wave of heavy hedge fund redemptions causing a double dip in equity markets similar to March 2009 is low in the current conjuncture.

2. The anecdotal evidence we have from our conversations with our colleagues in Prime Finance business as well as investors and fund…[Read more]

Tony P sees S&P500 coming down again to 2000-2300 range
Tony Pasquariello, macro guru at GS does not think market has bottomed.

1. Positioning much cleaner than a month ago, but not yet “fully clean”…

2. corona news (from a US perspective) still not at peak awful

3. market propped up by month-end rebal flow

4. market will trade lower as…[Read more]