volguru – Finom Group

volguru replied to the topic Hedging TVIX short position in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 5 years, 8 months ago

Hi Seth – if you see this, I am interested in the same response as well.

Thanks

volguru started the topic Hello again.. in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 5 months ago

Hello all – hope everyone’s doing great.

So after being out pretty much for the last few months (thankfully avoided the Feb event), I am beginning to take a look back at the VIX and only from a core short position perspective.

In my view, the risk is clearly on the higher end for any short position here since it seems after the Feb event VIX…[Read more]

volguru replied to the topic Discrepancies between VXX, TVIX & UVXY in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

@seth-golden Thats a helpful perspective. What i meant by broken is that dont expect them to trade like they should in times of distress. else, no reason why VXX was trading at a higher % gain then both TVIX/UVXY on Feb 6th if i remember correctly.

P.S. VXX shorts availability are back on Fidelity @2.5% cost to borrow

volguru replied to the topic Discrepancies between VXX, TVIX & UVXY in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Seth, that’s exactly why i mentioned the % changes since I am surprised by the way they ended up YTD.

Also, Hien bring an interesting point of whether VXX will now react at slightly higher than 1x.

How about a trade Short VXX 200 units and Long UVXY 100 units. Technically you will be neutral but you will catch some of the delta as the securities…[Read more]

volguru started the topic Discrepancies between VXX, TVIX & UVXY in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

So looking at the YTD performance,
VXX is up 48.8%
TVIX is up 40.4%
UVXY is up 54.3%

I don’t know what surprises me more, 1) the fact that 2 securities designed to do the same thing (TVIX & UVXY) have such a huge delta, or 2) VXX which is supposed to be 1x levered is actually higher than TVIX and so close to UVXY which are both 2x.

As far as i…[Read more]

volguru started the topic Studies on volatility products in prolonged backwardation in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Hello,

Are there any white papers analyzing how VIX ETFs/ETNs behave in a prolonged period of backwardation?

As I understand, as long as we remain in backwardation, TVIX/UVXY/VXX will keep rising since the forward months have to keep rising inline with the near months?

Does that make sense – and if so does that mean that shorting them here in…[Read more]

volguru started the topic Volatility ETF/ETNs Liquidations Possible Today AH in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Hearing this from couple of sources

XIV down 65% (Including AH)
SVXY down 65% (Including AH)

Wont take too much to hit the 80% mark

All the best

volguru replied to the topic Did we just see a Flash Crash intra-day? in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Well we are seeing one after market hours for sure

volguru replied to the topic I'm Out in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

SVXY at $45

Looking at over-reactions in VXX and SVXY, it certainly looks like options are blowing up – margin calls – brokerage house liquidating holdings – spillover impact.

volguru replied to the topic I'm Out in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Something is broken somewhere. VXX trading at $55 post market.

This is painful

volguru started the topic Did we just see a Flash Crash intra-day? in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

I think we all saw it – for about 4-5 mins

e.g. TVIX went up to almost 100% up including up 40% in couple of mins i think.
My brokerage account went blank; trades disappeared. Crazy

I am almost certainly quitting the volatility game till things stabilise.

volguru replied to the topic I'm Out in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Capitulation…

It looks like the pain is nearing an end (or at least that’s the hope).

I will look to GET IN in the the next few minutes. Will start with shorting VXX in layers at around 38-40 levels. Not more than 5-10% of my portfolio.

Best of luck

volguru replied to the topic I'm Out in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Thank you ladies & gentlemen.

Aim of the post was to to take stock and make sure all of us are not getting into group think that everyone is adding to positions here.

I would personally advise caution especially if tomorrow we get a repeat of today. All it takes is a small healthy correction (which the markets need and is actually good in the…[Read more]

volguru started the topic I'm Out in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Maintaining 100% liquidity for now.

Not comfortable with the daily volatility spikes, yield rises and major banks calling for a correction. No point hedging losses when you can avoid the losses in the first place.

Aim of the post is to get a quick poll on Who’s In / Who’s Out

volguru replied to the topic risk of SVXY in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 10 months ago

ZIV instead of SVXY would make more sense from a long term holding perspective. Not sure what would take to dilute that one but its def far more than what would impact XIV and SVXY. Sure, you would make 50-60% of the upside in XIV/SVXY but downside is much better protected – which is likely the aim in the retirement account.
You also have XIVH (…[Read more]