ultrafeel – Finom Group

ultrafeel started the topic Bloomberg: VIX needs to lose 2/3 of its value for UVXY to go to zero ? in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 3 months ago

Gentlemen,

what’s going on here:

“…For the Houndstooth strategy to pay off, VIX futures need to lose two-thirds of their value in a single day. That, in theory, would be enough to send the price of the 1.5-times leveraged UVXY to zero….”

found…[Read more]

ultrafeel started the topic Sentiment data for volatility contracts in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 4 months ago

Gentlemen,

I would like to find more sources for sentiment data for contracts such as UVXY, VXX and SVXY.
Of course there is a sentiment graph on stocktwits, but strangely enough it displays somewhat contradictory data for VXX compared to UVXY. These two contracts should show pretty much the same relative values, shouldn’t they?

An app called…[Read more]

ultrafeel started the topic Short-term options: Edge for longs due to gamma? in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 6 months ago

Gentlemen!
it just occurred to me that on very short-term options (less than 5 trading days) a long position in options, ATM, might have a slight statistical edge due to the fact that one can only lose 100% but potentially win much more than 100%. A high gamma value in combination with the general down-trend of the inverse volatility-contracts…[Read more]

ultrafeel replied to the topic Price predictions for vxx/uvxy/tvix in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 7 months ago

@ Volleball,

you said:

“1) Buying deep ITM monthly SVXY calls after a significant drop in price.
2) When UVXY and VXX spikes up, sell deep OTM naked calls 2 to 3 months away. When profitable close the trade out by buying back the OTM call.
3) Buy 3 to 4 months out deep ITM VXX puts when volatility spikes”

why would you go for MONTHLY SVXY…[Read more]

ultrafeel replied to the topic 50-30-20 Volatility Strategy in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 7 months ago

To be fair: They said that their strategy will only work when in contango – the problem with that is of course: no one really knows when we will go into or come out of contango in advance.

ultrafeel replied to the topic 50-30-20 Volatility Strategy in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 7 months ago

Those guys seem to be prettty quiet lately…I tried to warn them that you cannot simply hold SVXY long-term, ‘Innoware’ confirmed, kind of, but still recommended to invest some amount of money monthly into SVXY and just hold, you were supposed to become a millionaire with this ‘strategy’ in just 10 years…..

ultrafeel replied to the topic Pre-market in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 7 months ago

Thanks Seth, I think I know where, will try today.

ultrafeel replied to the topic Pre-market in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 7 months ago

With TD Ameritrade, where do I find the settings to be able to trade pre-after-markets?

ultrafeel replied to the topic ProShare Capital Management LLC Plans to Reduce Target Exposure On Two ETFs in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago

So I guess I have a problem with my UVXY LEAP long puts and my SVXY LEAP long calls…

ultrafeel replied to the topic Buying SVXY calls today in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

I also couldn’t resist…
bought some very long-term January 2020, 50 Calls.
Am already up a little…i am aware that this is of course super-risky.
But as I was not short naked volatility over these days, I am up for a little risk now.

ultrafeel replied to the topic Can UVXY go to zero ?! in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

yes i understand that UVXY/VXX tend to go slowly towards zero, but reverse splits keep it ‘alive’.
however I mean some suggested on seekingalpha that today an extreme volatility crash might occur, which would terminate UVXY just as SVXY might be terminated soon.

one commentator said:
“VIX futures are down -20% for february. NASDAQ futures just…[Read more]

ultrafeel started the topic Can UVXY go to zero ?! in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Gentlemen!
i have just read a few commentators who claim that UVXY can (and will) go to zero either today or till the end of the week.

is such a think possible at all, and would will happen to my long puts, i got a few long-term puts, some till 2020.
Also what could happen to VXX, after an extreme volatility crash?

ultrafeel replied to the topic VXX vs SVXY for scalps in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

But isn’t the probability of price movements for SVXY more like:
+ 10%
– 9.9%
+ 10%
– 9.9%
+ 10%
– 9.9%
…
due to the fact that stocks go up long-term, and volatility mean-reverts,
hence beta slippage is not really an issue?

ultrafeel replied to the topic Short VXX and UVXY with protection against Black Swan in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Gentlemen!

i agree with Seth of course that a ‘real’ black swan of course is a sudden, totally unexpected event, such as 9/11 as a prime example.
A correction or even crash over a month/years is not considered to be a black swan.

The other point is: It doesn’t really matter whether we use a 10’000, 100’000 or 10 million $ account!
In each of…[Read more]

ultrafeel started the topic Short VXX and UVXY with protection against Black Swan in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Gentlemen,
I am aware that there will probably never be an absolute protection against black swan events, and also I know that really extreme black swans are exceedingly rare – still, they could happen, and seen over a very long-term time horizon they will most probably do happen.

So, let’s say I use a
USD 10’000.– account
wherein I want to…[Read more]

ultrafeel replied to the topic UVXY and VXX LEAPS in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

It’s set right now at 0.45 – 0.47, right? Where did you buy?

ultrafeel replied to the topic China Crackdown on Cryptos in the forum Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, & Altcoins 6 years, 9 months ago

Gentlemen!

I think this time it will be a deeper and longer correction – which is actually good. All the weak hands should be shaken out. As painful as it maybe, but the best would be a bitcoin correction down to between 1’000 and 2’000 $. Then I’ll enter again.

Cheers from Switzerland
Fox