Goldman Sachs forecast for NFP: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in August … Our forecast reflects a 15-20k boost from Census canvassing activities, but a slower underlying pace of private-sector job gains in part reflecting the return of the trade war. …

We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate avera…[Read more]

Credit Suisse:
Reasons to be bullish: we are in the “yield-curve inversion sweet spot” for equities right now
The US yield curve inverted (2 year/10 year) on August 14th

1. 75% of the time the market is able to rise in the following 6 months

2. average rise in 6m is 8%.

3. If ever the US yield curve did not work as a recession pre-cursor it is…[Read more]

Marko Kolanovic:
Think employment data will suck…

Weaker employment data stands to have a larger market impact moving forward

we recommend investors purchase SPY September 6th 292 strike puts for $0.94, indicatively

Per Morgan Stanley
3 observations from Morgan Stanley:

1. Positioning is now lighter than even 2015 / 2016, and most cases since 2008.

2. $450B of equity has left Mutual Funds and ETFs into money markets this year.

2. Exposure-wise, L/S HF nets are < 5th %-ile, while Systematic leverage is in the 20-30th %-ile.

Mislav´s 5 reasons to remain bullish:
1) Fed is easing, but without HY spreads or jobless claims spiking, both of which typically deteriorate into a recession. Crucially, if initial Fed cuts are not followed by a recession, the next 3, 6 and 12 months equity returns were historically very strong–

2) Global activity momentum is likely to look be…[Read more]

Friday’s NFP May prove of greater significance than most are currently considering. Recall in Feb. 2018 the NFPs wave component accelerated beyond economists’ projections and investors feared it would prove a lasting inflationary contributor. Markets were rocked by 1,000 point moves on the Dow. Beyond the headline number and with companies loo…[Read more]