Friends – Activity – tnogradi

Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

JPM on the retail sales #s
we estimate that real consumer spending increased 2.6% saar in 3Q. This is a notable step down from the robust 4.6% increase reported for 2Q…

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

Goldman Sachs: I. This is the longest economic expansion in US history. 123 months (+) and counting starting in June 2009. The previous expansion record was 120 months (March 1991 to March 2001).

II. S&P had the best Q1-Q3 performance since 1997 . YTD SHARPE = 1.6.

III. This is the best year for the 60-40 stock bond portfolio since 1997 and the…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

Chinese exports down further in September
Exports contracted further by 3.2% yoy in September, roughly in line with consensus expectations. Imports posted a larger…

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

JPM on the “mini-deal”
1. The mini-deal delivers another round of truce, a positive and welcome outcome that has been partially priced in.

2. However, the gap between a…

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

While shifted positively toward the end of the week, the S&P has still fallen 1% in the last month. Returns in earnings periods are good, but are even better when the…

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

GOLDMAN: US growth was boosted after 2018 stimulus, and the waning boost this year “may be overstating the downward trend of growth in the underlying economy. Our findings argue for putting more weight on indicators of today’s growth rate, which are not sending alarming signals”

Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to “beat the market” consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.

In order to beat the market, one needs a…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

Our most recent trade alert to Premium Members. Well done everyone. In the face of rising volatility to boot!!

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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

GOLDMAN Sachs: ” … we don’t expect an end to the conflict anytime soon and see no comprehensive US-China trade deal until after the 2020 election at the earliest. So policy uncertainty will likely remain a drag on sentiment for the foreseeable future.”

Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago

David Kostin of GS
1. 3Q earnings season kicks off in earnest on October 15.

2. Consensus expects aggregate S&P 500 EPS will fall by 3% year/year, the first profit…