Morgan Stanley Cross-Asset Sunday call: next 2 weeks will be more tactically challenging
1. we are past the beneficial flows around month-end re-balancing

2. sees potential for renewed funds outflows cross-asset

3. we are past peak market uncertainty but not past peak macro uncertainty

4. earnings seasons will be downbeat

5. US covid news will…[Read more]

Will send out the latest J.P. Morgan Strategy Report Monday morning

BofA on capitulation
March capitulation: historic $284bn out of bonds and $658bn into cash in past 4

weeks ($64bn out of equities = sideshow).

Bond capitulation: record month of redemptions from IG bonds ($156bn), EM debt ($47bn), Municipal bonds ($24bn), HY bonds ($23bn).

The consensus analyst estimate pegs the decline in payrolls for March at 150,000, although the range of estimates suggests the result is anybody’s guess. The most pessimistic estimate pegs the decline at 1.25 million, while the most optimistic analyst expects an increase of 100,000 payrolls. As with everything else, the wide range of estimates i…[Read more]

Futures openly slightly higher this evening, sideways action near-term would be ideal, but keep in mind that VIX at roughly 60 equates to ~4% daily moves on SPX

GOLDMAN: “We left our March nonfarm payroll estimate unchanged at -180k (mom sa) and our private payroll estimate also unchanged at -200k.”

Report Trump has signed off on plan to reduce tariffs for 3 months

Larry Fink Letter: “In my 44 years in finance, I have never experienced anything like this”
1. Many of BLK’s clients are looking to increase their equity allocation in this market; “Tremendous opportunities to be had in today’s markets”

2. Reevaluating assumptions: “our infatuation with just-in-time supply chains or our reliance on international…[Read more]