Friends – Activity – tnogradi

Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

“Legendary investor Sir John Templeton famously remarked: “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” In six wee…

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

Harnett Flows to know:

1. Cash mountain yet to peak…MMF assets up $1.2tn past 14 weeks to $4.8tn

2. Gold mountain building….record 6-week inflow to gold funds

3. Hig…

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

Goldman Sachs: Trade tension z-score not climbing.

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

GS, what they expect:
nonfarm payrolls declined by 24 million in April
unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 14.0%
And:
In interpreting tomorrow’s report, we will pay special attention to the number and share of workers on furlough or temporary layoff.

Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

CTA beta to equities at 0 currently.

What is the next move? chased in on the long side?

CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) have the potential to move markets.

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

CITI: too early for cyclicals
1. Since the sell-off started, the performance gap between global Cyclical (-21%) and Defensive (-10%) sectors has been 11%.

2. In the last five global downturns, the average performance gap between Cyclicals and Defensives has been 20%.

3. We think the current performance gap could double.

4. When to overweight…[Read more]

Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

TRIN at ~ 1.44

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

Latest S&P 500 sector weighting

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

1. A number of the high-frequency indicators we track suggest that the global economy is in the process of bottoming out. Consumers’ future expectations have improved, mobility trends have moved up from their troughs and consumer spending is contracting more slowly than in the early weeks of the outbreak.

2. Hence, while global growth will t…[Read more]

DG replied 4 years, 6 months ago
thanks Seth…the MOVE or bond vol index has fallen to more normal levels…has often preceded equity vol in both directions…perhaps could be function of Fed intervention etc in bond market but interesting nonetheless…

Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 6 months ago

1. We believe this correction could be a meaningful (10%) but necessary pause that refreshes. Our bullish view has not changed, nor has the narrative – a severe r…