The UVXY Jan 19 1 strike was down to .17 today so I decided to back up the truck and load up.

Meanwhile the VXX 10s were up. Go figure.

CMLviz is not working at the moment but when I ran the scan on UVXY the result was the same as for VXX, 50d30d held to expiry at 90 days was the best return. However, in terms of absolute returns VXX backtests were much better than UVXY. And I don’t think those returns account for the spread and slippage.

I am conflicted.

Although iPhoneX has got a lot of bad press — I am not sure how much of this is legitimate and how much is “man bites dog” or “if it bleeds it leads.”

Horace has a lot of insight, so when he gives heads up on something I pay attention. I have never seen him so enthusiastic about an Apple product.

GPRO is down 26% this morning. Overreation perhaps, but I won’t be catching this falling knife right now at least…

Great quote from Horace Dediu on his iPhoneX impressions:

“Something is there, I don’t know what it is. It’s what they wanted to build from day one…I hate to say it’s magical but it is. There’s something going on but you can’t say what it is. I can tell you it is a quantum leap. It’s just like the first iPhone.”

IB’s policy on margining defined credit spreads is idiotic. These are not VIX calendar spreads, come on!

I suppose it’s that their software is too crude.

Have you found that the liquidity on those spreads has improved. I mean, it’s been a long time since I had to get out of one of em in a panic, but I recall that it can be tough with UVXY.

Ripple goes against everything that Bitcoin was meant to represent – decentralization. Nevertheless, I think it’s a necessary part of any crypto portfolio just like Bitcoin, BTC cash and gold, ether, litecoin, Lumens, cardano, monero, miota. Dilution is a concern, as is centralization, but like most coins, it boils down to people looking for…[Read more]

Longer duration is better for my mental capital.

It just turns out that 90 days is the best return on the backtester.

Well, it is certainly clear that German bund traders and also French VIX traders can move their respective markets in the US for at least short periods of time, if not on a sustained basis.

I don’t follow the V2TX but I do follow Nikei Vi and it looks like this year I am going to be scalping it intraday, since I discovered that Tradestation is…[Read more]

I agree, Scott, with the strategy of buying VXX or UVXY put spreads with 90 to 180 days until expiration. Closer to 180 days is for the more conservative investors, while closer to 90 days would be for the more risk-tolerant investors.

Andrew, I also like to sell UVXY call spreads, though I prefer to choose strike prices that are out of the…[Read more]

He’s recently been put in charge of some aspect of the CBOE Bitcoin initiative, so if you want to know about Bitcoin vol, and future product offerings, he is the guy.

Thank you Scott, I will check that out

“Trump’s not a single-digit VIX President” — Russell Rhoades

For 2018, I’m calling a 7-handle VIX print and an 8-handle settle.

That guy is right VXX and UVXY put spreads. Not call spreads. Mark Sebastian hammers this point. Puts and put spreads.

Here is the best one that CML Trade Machine has identified, 50d30d VXX put spread 90 days out.

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=T4unpVQsI1oLuGAo

If you can find a vol products spread that backtests with better numbers…[Read more]

This is a repeat of Dotcom. Any name with “online” in it was insanely bullish.

True that it’s risky to short, if there is anything I have learned from bitcoin it’s that.

But I shorted RIOT, a ten-lot on the JAN 18, just to get the bragging rights.

I dunno what the target should be. For example, somebody suggested closing my VXX 10 puts once they get to a dollar. My cost basis is about .35 cents. Seems like a very reasonable target. But since this is the first time I’ve done this, I would like to hear various views.

The fact is, nobody knows nothin’, not even the smartest guy at JPM.

We are all so addicted to and blinded by statistics that we forget statistics are backward looking. Some guy says there is 5% chance of something happening. Let me translate that, “In the past, this happened in 5% of cases.” Statistics are based on the past record. They do not…[Read more]

Margin on the very back month contract is $2500, and it slowly increases till you get to the front month, which is typically around $6000.

If you were to try to hold even the back month through a 2008 event it would expand over 10X. You can simulate the effects of an event on it by stepping through the historical term structure at…[Read more]

The list of Blockchain and block chain related stocks continue to grow and spread – I believe tech giants have been lumped into the list. This is poison and I hope they crash sooner rather than later. I hope they don’t tarnish the Bitcoin world too much and result in a domino effect. I desperately want to short companies like RIOT and Long Island…[Read more]