Merrill on slowdown: “Total card spending turned lower and is now running at -3.8% yoy for the 7-days ending June 27th vs. flat over the prior 7-day period.

The states … with increasing virus cases have led the national slowdown, particularly in restaurants.”

Goldman on NFP: “We estimate nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from the +2.5mn record gain in May to +4.25mn in June (vs. consensus of +3.0mn)”

Morgan Stanley Chief Economist: Looking ahead, we do expect new clusters of infections to emerge, and our base case assumes a second wave in the autumn and winter. However, we think that public health systems will be better positioned to manage the second wave. Testing and tracing capacity are ramping up, the authorities are more attuned to…[Read more]

Citigroup: 1. Easy money/ loose monetary conditions helps to suppress equity market volatility and reduce the ‘fatter’ left tail in the return distribution

2. positive economic surprises increase confidence that 2021 EPS can bounce materially

3. We want to buy this equity ‘dip’

4. The search for yield could return as

a driver of spreads…[Read more]

JPM MId-year outlook: After month-end and the summer months, we expect volatility to decline and see the VIX falling by half, declining from 30 to 15. Lower volatility should drive equity inflows, while the present value of earnings is higher due to lower rates. Value experienced a record rally in May and then a slight pull back, but Value should…[Read more]

GS now estimating $65bn of rebal selling
The flow is very well-understood by the market and it has been frustrating for bears that we traded so well earlier….

But as the Program Trading desks always say….”a sell-flow of >$50bn is a sell-flow of >$50bn….”

….. it needs to get executed…and it way more often than not has market impact with…[Read more]