Citigroup:
1. FED and COVID more important: Expect volatility in a contested election, but the Fed and pandemic recovery likely will have greater influences.

2. USD could rally……a USD rally is possible in a disputed election, but will remain unsupported otherwise.

3. Trump winners……Sectors that may benefit from a 2nd Trump term include…[Read more]

S&P 500 up 13 of last 17 September option expiration weeks – September’s option expiration week is up 60.5% of the time for S&P 500 since 1982. DJIA and NASDAQ have slightly weaker track records with gains 55.3% of the time and 57.9% of the time

Flow & Liquidity expert at JPM, Nikos P, sees significant equity selling into month-end. Flows have clearly been important in September. Will this one also spook the market?

“We estimate around -$200bn of negative rebalancing flow by entities that tend to rebalance on a quarterly basis, such as US defined benefit pension plans, Norges Bank, i.e.…[Read more]

J.P. Morgan: “We find little evidence to suggest that retail investors have played a big role in this month’s equity correction, at least up until last week. If anything, small option traders saw last week’s correction as an opportunity to add to their call option buying, especially on individual equities.

We thus suspect that institutional inv…[Read more]

Merrill Lynch forecasts: “August nonfarm payrolls are likely to rise by 1.2mn and the unemployment rate should improve to 9.6%, falling back down to single digit territory.”