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Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years ago

By JPM Market Intelligence team

1) monetary expectations – If the big upcoming decisions (ECB on 7/25 and/or the FOMC on 7/31) were to disappoint, the multiple expansion process could stall (or reverse)

2) earnings – the earnings risks have actually declined a bit in the last few days. Loan growth is one of the best proxies of underlying eco…[Read more]

Seth Golden replied to the topic Wal-Mart's online push set to continue in the forum State of Retail in U.S. 6 years ago

Walmart CEO: “We have been playing catch-up with e-commerce https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Famp%2Fstory%2Fguid%2F4195b730-a7e5-11e9-8659-7d9ae9c78947&link=sfmw_tw#https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4195b730-a7e5-11e9-8659-7d9ae9c78947?mod=dist_amp_social

Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years ago

Morgan Stanley´s strategist Mr Wilson:

1. We remain of the view that the consensus S&P 500 earnings forecasts are still materially too high for both the second half of 2019 and 2020 and that the Fed’s recent signaling of a cut later this month should not be celebrated if it is accompanied by an earnings, and possibly an economic recession in th…[Read more]

Seth Golden started the topic JPM Raises S&P 500 Target in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years ago

JPM: “chaos is a ladder” – JPM going all Littlefinger (sort of)
raises SPX target to 3200

“The upside pain trade to continue — equities climb the wall of worry”

“We remain constructive and expect corrections to be shallow with Value and Cyclicals possessing the most attractive risk-reward”

Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years ago

The bullish view going into earnings
1) the Q2 bar is low thanks to all the warnings and St estimate cuts

2)CB-induced PE expansion will help offset reduced EPS

3)most of the bad headlines have been confined to a single sector (industrials).

Seth Golden started the topic JPM incrementally positive on iPhone outlook in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 6 years ago

1. turning incrementally positive on the volume outlook for iPhone shipments in 2020, led by channel checks from our global supply chain and smartphone analysts, which suggest that Apple is likely to pull an additional lever in the form of a refresh of the legacy iPhone SE/iPhone 8 model to address a much more “value” category than it has been…[Read more]

Seth Golden started the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years ago

“We see a market too sanguine about what lower bond yields may be suggesting – a worsening growth outlook,”

“Continued deterioration in global PMIs suggests a macro environment with plenty of downside risks.”

Our lowest equity weight of the last five years: We’re reducing our overall equity

weight via reduction in US and EM equities, the regio…[Read more]