Deutsche:

1. We are encouraged by stats released from Facebook showing strong improvements in audience and engagement at Facebook Watch.

2. We increasingly see Watch as a scalable long-term revenue source. We think most investors view Watch as “meh” to the investment case, skeptical it can scale despite some solid numbers released in Dec…[Read more]

Jun. 11, 2019 7:42 AM ET|About: Facebook, Inc. (FB)|By: Brandy Betz, SA News Editor
MoffettNathanson upgrades Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) from Neutral to Buy with a $210 price target, implying a 20% upside.

Analyst Michael Nathanson cites “improving underlying fundamentals” and new growth opportunities, which can offset regulatory risks.

The analyst…[Read more]

1. Global equity vs bond flows have now hit a 3-standard deviation extreme, the lowest level since 2004.

2. Last week saw the largest weekly net inflow into Bond funds in over 4 years at USD 17.5bn and investors redeemed USD 10.5bn from their holdings of global equity funds, taking the cumulative flows for these 2 asset classes since the…[Read more]

“Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.”
“.. we would be wary of any claims that costs will be passed along to end market consumers or absorbed by cost efficiencies .. companies are already struggling to take price or maintain margins. Thus, we believe an exogenous cost shock would be very hard to absorb.”

CTA positioning
1. With yesterday’s market rally, the S&P now crossed through the medium-term threshold for the systematic community at ~2797. While this doesn’t mean systematic supply will suddenly halt, it does mean it will abate.

2. For US equities as a whole, the GS macro sales desk currently estimates the CTA community is net short -$5…[Read more]

“Our base case includes: 1) tariffs on all Chinese imports to be implemented but removed as part of a handshake deal (most probably at the G20 summit); 2) 5% tariffs on all Mexican imports to be implemented. 3) auto tariffs to be announced and tensions to rise between the US and the EU/Japan., and 4) continued restrictions associated to national s…[Read more]

1. We only see the Fed cutting rates if we get a sufficient slowing in the real economy that they fear a recession.

2. An equity sell off would accompany that slide in the economy, but by itself, it seems insufficient.

3. Tariffs increase the probability of recession.

4. In our baseline, we continue to assume that deals are struck before…[Read more]

1.. On being a monopoly:

“No. I don’t thinks so. I think that with size, I think scrutiny is fair. I think we should be scrutinized. But if you look at any kind of measure about is Apple a monopoly or not, I don’t think anybody reasonable is going to come to the conclusion that Apple’s a monopoly. Our share is much more modest. We don’t have a…[Read more]

MS Lowering AAPL bear case to $147: App Store remains a focus of regulators in the US and EU, and Katy takes a shot at the ‘worst case’ today = exiting media services or lowering App Store commission rate reduces valuation by $3-13. This is now fully reflected in her bear case valuation.

Her current view on the stock: “…continue to see…[Read more]

Bank of America Merrill Lynch, see the Fed cutting interest rates by 75 basis points by early 2020. They see rates starting to be cut in September.

They add:
See PBOC cutting a Chinese interest rates twice in 2019, and once in 2020 (keeping pace with the US)
Downgrade US 2nd half 2019 GDP growth view to 1.2% from 1.8% previously
Lowers annual GDP…[Read more]