@sguilkey
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Seth Golden and
Huey Bible are now friends 5 years, 4 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
“We see a favorable set-up for hardlines/broadlines retail in 2H19 and into 2020, as drivers of spending continue to be supportive. With steady growth in payrolls, wage rates, and hence in consumer income, and strength in financial markets poised to boost consumer net worth, the backdrop for consumption appears healthy” -
Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 4 months ago
The bullish view going into earnings
1) the Q2 bar is low thanks to all the warnings and St estimate cuts2)CB-induced PE expansion will help offset reduced EPS
3)most of the bad headlines have been confined to a single sector (industrials).
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
History of the 10-year yield. Strip out the Failed Volker monitary policies and yields only go in one direction long-term. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Friday’s are the best day of the week in 2019, for equities. (Chart by Bespoke Investment Group) -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Next big events from JPM: 1) Fed communications–Powell will testify 7/10-11 while minutes from the last FOMC meeting will hit 7/10.
2) China’s Q2 GDP and June data(IP, retail sales, and FAI) will hit Mon morning 7/15
3) earnings season kicks off w/the banks on Mon 7/15 and will continue until early Aug;
4) Mueller testifies before the House on…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and
CRous are now friends 5 years, 4 months ago
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Seth Golden started the topic JPM incrementally positive on iPhone outlook in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 5 years, 4 months ago
1. turning incrementally positive on the volume outlook for iPhone shipments in 2020, led by channel checks from our global supply chain and smartphone analysts, which suggest that Apple is likely to pull an additional lever in the form of a refresh of the legacy iPhone SE/iPhone 8 model to address a much more “value” category than it has been…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 4 months ago
“We see a market too sanguine about what lower bond yields may be suggesting – a worsening growth outlook,”
“Continued deterioration in global PMIs suggests a macro environment with plenty of downside risks.”
Our lowest equity weight of the last five years: We’re reducing our overall equity
weight via reduction in US and EM equities, the regio…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
We expect equities to advance further before the next US recession strikes, perhaps of the order of 15% over the next 12 months -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Overall net leverage has risen for six straight weeks with a cumulative gain of +9.0 pts – the largest increase over any six-week period in more than five years – to 67.5%… -
Seth Golden started the topic Rosenblatt lacks confidence in back half in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 5 years, 4 months ago
The firm said that while it didn’t think Apple stock was a short, “we believe Apple will face fundamental deterioration over the next 6 to 12 months,” analyst Jun Zhang said in a note to clients. Rosenblatt did, however, maintain its 12-month $150 price target.
“…new iPhone sales will be disappointing,
iPad sales growth will slow in the sec…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Goldman Sachs: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in June, somewhat above consensus of +162k & a sharp improvement from the 75k gain in May. We estimate average hourly earnings growth narrowly rounded up to +0.4% in June (consensus +0.3%)
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Seth Golden and
JW are now friends 5 years, 4 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Merrill: “We forecast that Nonfarm payrolls grew by 155k in June following a soft 75k reading in May. … We look for the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6% while wage growth should accelerate to 3.2% in June from 3.1% in May.”
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Wal-Mart's online push set to continue in the forum State of Retail in U.S. 5 years, 4 months ago
Walmart (NYSE:WMT) is prepping itself to lose more than $1B in its e-commerce operations in the U.S. this year off revenue of $21B to $22B, according to Recode.
Sources say Walmart e-commerce chief Marc Lore is under increasing pressure to cut losses, a difficult task with the retailer looking to compete with Amazon on speed of delivery and…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Goldman on TSLA deliveries:
1. Aggregate deliveries for Tesla vehicles in 2Q19 came in 5% above our estimate and over 10% above consensus (both company-compiled and StreetAccount) as Model 3 deliveries surprised to the upside.2. Further, the company noted positive progress on its logistics and delivery operations (driving some cost efficiencies…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 4 months ago
Today’s term structure is very comparable to June 2018-
and what happened on June 2018?
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Seth Golden started the topic BofML says be patient with BBBY in the forum Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 5 years, 4 months ago
Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees one more tough quarter for Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY -1.6%) before the retailer’s turnaround efforts start to pay off.
“In particular, we are concerned that the decision by BBBY’s former CEO to pull back on BBBY’s well known 20% coupon could pressure comps more than anticipated, although gross margin will lik…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 4 months ago
Why did we not go up even more Monday?
1) the G20 outcome was very expected on trade/tariffs (most assumed a moratorium would be declared on incremental tariffs)2) the two sides don’t seem any closer to reaching a full and final deal and as a result it looks like the US-China tariffs could stay in place in perpetuity
3) the Huawei news was a p…[Read more]
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