The Morgan Stanley QDS Pension Rebalancing Model estimates that there will be $30 to $40bn inflows to Equities from pensions through the first week of September, and an estimated $40bn has likely hit the market already this month – for a total of $75bn inflows from the first week of August through the first week of September.

The below is being relayed by the European Commission, saying that both leaders will have a telephone call later this afternoon.

The pound is continuing to hold more optimistic on the day amid talks of opposition leaders hoping to stop a no-deal Brexit but also as Boris Johnson is seen to be more optimistic about avoiding a no-deal outcome…[Read more]

David Kostin of Goldman Sachs: “Our year-end S&P 500 price target of 3100 represents a 9% return from the current level. However, US-China trade represents a significant source of uncertainty to our projection; a downside scenario could see the S&P 500 end 2019 at roughly 2620, or 8% below the current level”

“China called last night our top trade people and said ‘let’s get back to the table’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world,” Trump said. htt…[Read more]

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Goldman Sachs on Risk Events
1. The sharpness of the rally has swung our tactical options-implied positioning indicator (OPI) from neutral to close to overbought territory.

2. This switch in positioning metrics is occurring just as UST 10s are hovering around our 1.5% overshoot level.

3. Bonds could of course stay overbought for a while,…[Read more]

Bread and butter housing is coming back. Single-family housing starts hit their best level since January. Single-family housing permits hit their best level since November 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/us-housing-starts—july-2019.html

Weekly flows from BofAML
1. Cash: biggest 13-week flows into MMFs since Jan’09 ($319bn)

2. ICI money market fund assets ($3.4tn) at 10-year high.

3. Weekly flows: $16.0bn into bonds; $4.7 out of equities.

4. Bonds: 9 biggest ever inflows to govt bonds ($4.7bn).

5. Credit: 5 biggest ever IG inflows ($10.7bn), tiny into HY ($0.2bn), small out…[Read more]