Dave, I really feel horrible for those who have lost everything. It sounds like this event
wiped out more people than I thought. I’ve had my share of bad trades over the past 18 or
so years. It can really take a toll emotionally. Thanks for the great youtube vids.

We came out of contango today but hopefully we will return to contango tomorrow. At least the term structure does still slope upward from m2 on out and the back months were up almost as much as the front months today which was reassuring…

I have a friend who bought $250k worth of FB LEAPS with stock around $40 and rode it all the way up to like $120… He of course now thinks he is a genius but I have to give it to him. He did well on that one. I think now he is long $SQ…

Hi Seth,I kind of expected more to join the conversation. The short vol community seems to have
contracted markedly. Hopefully people find their way back. I’m going to start a seperate account after
I sell my house and use those funds dedicated to your method. Glad I have access to you and
your experience as you have proven over the years this…[Read more]

Yes, its a sleep well at night/clip a coupon strategy.

UVXY Leap put 5 price got cut almost half. More pain to rebuilding portfolio.

Michael’s Twitter timeline back from the beginning is very educational.

I don’t know how he does it either.

I did a bunch of backtests this week with CMLviz that totally rocked my world.

One of the results is that I am going to stop doing LEAPs and instead focus on the front week options.

Sure, it’s pretty basic. I know Michael Listman ( I should ask him how he’s modeling now) uvxytrader on Twitter uses .00864 as an average daily decay. Finding a starting point is the tough part. I ran VXX at half that number and modeled it back about 18 months with historical data from Nasdaq.com and it’s pretty consistent. Forecasting forward is…[Read more]

Here is my half-time analysis of earnings, for the second go-round using CML TradeMachine Pro Scanner and filtering the results with the Tastytrade liquidity metric. Note that a good portion of this period, the peak of it, was messed up pretty bad by a 6 SD vol event, so the results were hurt by that.

7-day or 14-day pre-earnings 40-delta Call…[Read more]

Seth, that’s exactly why i mentioned the % changes since I am surprised by the way they ended up YTD.

Also, Hien bring an interesting point of whether VXX will now react at slightly higher than 1x.

How about a trade Short VXX 200 units and Long UVXY 100 units. Technically you will be neutral but you will catch some of the delta as the securities…[Read more]

If you are long SVXY here I would look at the future prospects for this ETP in terms of percentage moves. With it trading around $11 an excellent run from here with it up 100% would bring it to $22…. If you think somehow it is going to bounce back to $100 overnight or even over the course of a year, I am afraid you are mistaken. Forget about…[Read more]

What a wild day… I’m just chilling with cash, waiting for a modicum of stability in the markets.

Thanks for the feedback. I’ll put FIT on the backburnr for now.