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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago
J.P. Morgan:
1. expect next year to be front-loaded with most of the market upside realized in the first six months of the year2. continued exceptionally easy monetary policy (US M2 money supply +24% y/y, largest increase since 1940s) and another round of fiscal stimulus ($700-900b) in the near future;
3. COVID-19 vaccine distribution and easing of mobility restrictions fueling further earnings, labor market, and business cycle recovery
4. Election outcome with an expected balance of power and likely legislative gridlock is a goldilocks scenario for equities
5. Steady decline in USD trade-weighted index (-11% since Mar peak and -5% since 1yr ago) is expected to be a significant tailwind for multinational earnings in the coming quarters and for broader liquidity conditions
6. Corporates should begin to release excess balance sheet cash starting next year (S&P 500 record cash balance at ~$2.1 trillion ex-Financials), revitalizing capex, M&A, and capital return
7. expect ~$1 trillion of equity inflow / demand in 2021 driven by systematic flows, hedge fund positioning, retail buying, share buybacks, rotation from non-equity into equity