Hatzius: “On a year-on-year basis, our forecast for US growth shows -11% in Q2, -8% in Q3, and -5% in Q4, which clearly qualifies as U-shaped. On a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, however, this same forecast shows -34% in Q2, +19% in Q3, and +12% in Q4, which looks rather V-shaped. Thus, our forecast is one in which the economy recovers only gradually from the virus but nevertheless shows sequential growth rates in H2 that are unprecedented in postwar history. Such is the strange world of recovering from a pandemic shock”