confidence (measured using the US Manufacturing PMI) tends to decline starting 6 months before Election Day. PMIs showed sequential growth 70% of the time

through June, but that figure declined to 45% of the time by Election Day. During

an election year, the PMI declines by 4% vs. the start of the year (excluding years of

recession, this figure improves to +2%). Once the election is over, however,

investment confidence tends to return and PMIs grow 60% of the time in the 6

months following the event (averaging flattish) and 85% of the time 12 months

afterwards (averaging +9% growth), all of which supports the case for a growth

rebound in 2021.