-
Seth Golden replied to the topic Berstein on Fund Flows in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
How big a cut to earnings forecasts is coming? does not matter – all priced in anyhow….
1. Bernstein expects earnings forecasts to be cut in the coming months following the slowing macro data this summer2. expect 12 month forward US earnings growth to be 4.5%, which is well below the combination of consensus for 1.9% growth for 2019 and 10.6%…[Read more]
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs:
Jan Hatzius:1. Beyond September/October, we think the environment will become less supportive for further Fed rate cuts.
2. This is mostly because core PCE inflation will likely turn sharply higher on a year-on-year basis, for two reasons.
3. First, the current year-on-year rate is depressed by outliers to the downside in late…[Read more]
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Why did US Banks rally 3.5%?
1. the bank complex traded very well on Mon and led its cyclical peers higher.2. The fundamental driver for the strength was better-than-feared presentations from mgmt. teams at the Barclays conf.
3. Investors were worried about gloomy mid-Q updates given the trajectory of rates but that didn’t happen. Citigroup, C…[Read more]
-
Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
MS on Market Rotation
1. active investors (long onlies and HFs) are not embracing / chasing this move2. US trading desk has been way better to sell in the cyclical sectors over the past few days, from active / real money
3. on the surface move appears to be driven by macro/quant sector/factor rebalancing
-
Seth Golden and Jinhua Pan are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
-
Seth Golden started the topic Goldman on Trade in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
GOLDMAN SACHS: “While we no longer expect a comprehensive trade deal with China, we think the more likely path is one in which President Trump puts tariffs on the back burner as we approach the November 2020 election.”
-
Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
MS Cross Asset Strategist, Andrew Sheets:
“Last week’s rally shined a light on the market’s bull case, and the importance of a better economy to that story. Given our cautious views on growth, trade progress and central bank action relative to consensus, we maintain our cautious stance. But this week was a shot across the bow: if we’re wrong…[Read more]
-
Seth Golden and JJ are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
though a substantial fraction of this rise in activity comes from an increased propensity to retweet others.” -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Trump has averaged 10+ tweets a day since the start of 2016. “Starting in late 2018, however, activity has picked up substantially. The highest volume of tweets over the past four years has in fact come in recent months.” -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Volfefe corresponding chart -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
J.P. Morgan introduces the Volfefe Index… seriously! -
Seth Golden and Brian Strang are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs forecast for NFP: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in August … Our forecast reflects a 15-20k boost from Census canvassing activities, but a slower underlying pace of private-sector job gains in part reflecting the return of the trade war. …
We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate avera…[Read more]
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Credit Suisse:
Reasons to be bullish: we are in the “yield-curve inversion sweet spot” for equities right now
The US yield curve inverted (2 year/10 year) on August 14th1. 75% of the time the market is able to rise in the following 6 months
2. average rise in 6m is 8%.
3. If ever the US yield curve did not work as a recession pre-cursor it is…[Read more]
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Marko Kolanovic:
Think employment data will suck…Weaker employment data stands to have a larger market impact moving forward
we recommend investors purchase SPY September 6th 292 strike puts for $0.94, indicatively
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Nice trade we completed in the premarket today as we recently shorted shares of $UVXY at $30.91 and covered here today at $29.76. Subscribe today and trade with us! -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
On verge of multi-decade breakout or breakdown again -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Per Morgan Stanley
3 observations from Morgan Stanley:1. Positioning is now lighter than even 2015 / 2016, and most cases since 2008.
2. $450B of equity has left Mutual Funds and ETFs into money markets this year.
2. Exposure-wise, L/S HF nets are < 5th %-ile, while Systematic leverage is in the 20-30th %-ile.
-
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Chart of the day is $TNX layover with Crude oil. Followed each other post the ISM data release. - Load More