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Seth Golden and Martin are now friends 4 years, 7 months ago
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Seth Golden and Dave J are now friends 4 years, 7 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
JPM’s Marko Kolanovic: On the structural flow side we think conditions will however improve. With large option expiry tomorrow, a meaningful portion (~1/3) of short gamma will expire. This should reduce the chop and volatility going forward. Also given the weekly market seasonality (see here), post expiry week reversion should be a net positive…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
The White House’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said the administration may consider asking for an equity stake in corporations who want coronavirus aid from taxpayers.
“One of the ideas is, if we provide assistance, we might take an equity position,” Kudlow said Wednesday at the White House, adding that the 2008 bailout of General Motor…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
Active manager sentiment has fallen to 2016 lows -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
GS: S&P 500 will fall to a mid-year low before rallying to 3200 at year-end -
Seth Golden and valeriy.yudin@gmail.com are now friends 4 years, 7 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
collection of Q2 GDP forecasts -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
signs in China’s economy where large firms back to work & operating at levels > pre-virus rates -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
Market recap video for 3/20/2020 https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcycd536579oaz/1024-Wayne-03-16-2020__06.03.621_PM.webm?dl=0
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Seth Golden and Mayank are now friends 4 years, 7 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
Once stocks fall 20%, long-term returns start to improve with every painful leg lower. This is why it’s so important to stay in the game. -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
Goldman: “we now expect real GDP growth of 0% in Q1 (from +0.7%), -5% in Q2 (from 0%), +3% in Q3 (from +1%), and +4% in Q4 (from +2¼%), with further strong gains in early 2021. This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4% (from 1.2%).”
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
Bank of America Merrill Lynch -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
GS: There is no systemic risk
Feedback from conference call held Sunday.1. 50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it’s very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
2. 70% of Germany will contract it (58M…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
Although nearly 1/3 of the corrections we have seen over the past ~100Y have been worse in magnitude compared to where we are today, we have never seen an SPX correction… -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 7 months ago
JPM Mislav Matejka, head of equity strategy: we could see a more sustained rally if/when
1. We get a much more aggressive fiscal policy response
2. If the original problem, virus outbreak, starts showing clear signs of seasonality/peaking out
3. If markets overshoot in pricing in of a recession, something which we think we are still some way away…[Read more] -
Seth Golden and Samir Ruparel are now friends 4 years, 7 months ago
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