The policy response has been forceful thus far, with around $2.8 trillion of stimulus on the fiscal front and a $2.4 trillion expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The breadth of measures taken by global central banks to maintain liquidity and flow of credit is also substantial, far exceeding initiatives taken during the 2008-2009 g…[Read more]

Goldman calls the House Dem proposal “largely symbolic” and adds: “Without an obvious forcing event this month, we do not expect Congress to enact the next round of fiscal measures until late June.”

Goldman Sachs: latest sees a bit deeper quarter-on-quarter annualized hit in Q2 (-39% vs. -34%) followed by a faster recovery in Q3 (+29% vs. +19%)

Retail liquidity: less problems than expected
Morgan Stanley built a model to analyze US retail liquidity (of listed companies). Lessons learned: Apocalypse postponed….

1. Almost all companies identified as “at risk” in prior analysis (LB, GPS, PVH, CPRI, HUD, and CHS) have effectively strengthened their liquidity positions to withstand…[Read more]

CITI Quant Stregist: “Using a model based on market flows (large shorts / flow dominated by short covering), we find there is strong evidence that equity markets are indeed in the middle of a melt-up. Risks are now skewed to the downside with the expectation that equities will be 10% lower within 3mths. Meanwhile extending this model to

Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

20Q1 earnings are expected to decrease 12.0% from 19Q1. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is -11.3%.
Of the 430 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q1, 67.4% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and…[Read more]