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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
J.P. Morgan’s Mislav on yield curve, recessions, risks
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
peeling back the LEI onion one layer exposes flags (a couple of red, otherwise mostly yellow) that are worth noting. Shown in the first portion of the table below are the 10 subcomponents of the LEI. While levels are generally healthy or fair (with the exception of average consumer expectations for business conditions), trends look less…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Maximum Intra-Year Drawdown in Year 3 of Bull Market
1949-1952: -6.8%
1957-1960: -13.4%
1962-1965: -9.6%
1966-1969: -16%
1970-1973: -23.4% bear mkt
1974-1977: -15.6%
1982-1985: -7.7%
1987-1990: -19.9% bear mkt
2002-2005: -7.2%
2009-2012: -9.9%Avg. -12.95%
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Here is how sectors perform when we have FALLING inflation from high levels.
Most probable from rate-of-change alone. (1st column)
Good for defensives, bad for cyclicals. Part of normalizing PMIs from high levels also. -
Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Big jump WoW in CY2022 EPS from $225 to $227.39. Biggest jump from one week to the next in 2022.
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
For every investor concern there’s a full-proof remedy
-Trade war
-Weaker economy
-Recession
-Rising rates
-High inflation
-Yield-curve inversion
-Correction
-Great Financial Crisis
-Monetary tightening
-WarTime is an investor’s best friend; extend your time horizon!
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
J.P. Morgan:
Recessions still unlikely:
More gains in earnings
Bottoming in China activity
Fed not to turn ever more hawkish
Oil rose 238% entering 1974 & 198% entering
1980, which resulted in recessions. Current moves
nothing on this scale -
Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Years that start off bearish tend to end off bullish.
In the last 10 years when the S&P 500 was negative through Feb, 7 of them ended the year positive (70%). The only exceptions were the Dot com crash (2001,2002) and the Global Financial Crisis (2008). -
Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Fundstrat:
10 of 10 times the S&P 500 higher 12 months later
– 8 of 10 times the S&P 500 higher 6 months later
– average gain 35.2% and 16.8%, respectively -
Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Mark Newton:
In the 2022 context, what this means is that the S&P 500 can bottom well
ahead of the Russia-Ukraine conflict bottoming. We believe the odds still favor
2/24 to be the low for 1H2022. We think the probability is more than 50%,
maybe 70%-75% but it is not at the “no brainer” level. And this all feeds int…[Read more] -
Seth Golden and Mila are now friends 3 years ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
S&P 500 performance post SOTU’s since 2001
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
From Michael Antonelli!
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Seth Golden and Danny Matos are now friends 3 years ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
Fundstrat’s Mark Newton
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
$QQQ: Last time both ATR and Williams %R (-.80+) were at extremes together, the bottom was in.
More, new and fresh turmoil may be need to find lower-lows. Otherwise, strong argument to be made for a bottom.
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Seth Golden and hashamkhan are now friends 3 years ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
J.P. Morgan on Russia/Ukraine/Fed
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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years ago
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Seth Golden and jassimraja are now friends 3 years ago
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