Cycle Composite 2022 Update:

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-19 at 8.31.21 AM

Wells Fargo’s Scott Wren

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-18 at 5.30.13 AM

Morgan Stanley Team:

🔹Earnings recession of -11% YoY EPS at $195/share

🔹1H 2023 “barely” recession of (0 to -.3 Q/Qsaar)
before rebounding.

🔹 $SPX downside 3,000 -3,300 before rebounding
to 3,900 June 2023.

🔹2H ’23 begins pricing 24% upside to EPS ’24

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-14…

[Read more]

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-08 at 4.36.36 AM

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-08 at 4.31.43 AM

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-08 at 4.28.18 AM

J.P. Morgan’s Marko Kolanovic:

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-08 at 4.12.12 AM

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-08 at 4.02.11 AM

Regardless of what the Fed is doing with the funds rate, real liquidity growth has been strongly correlated with stock market performance. Chart 1 highlights 14 previous cases when annual real liquidity growth bottomed either near zero or below zero. Of those, there was only one instance (2008) in which the S&P 500 declined over the next…[Read more]

Morgan Stanley: Mike Wilson

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-11-01 at 9.26.30 AM

Nominal vs. Real GDP

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 5.44.21 AM

Mike Wilson and David Kostin

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-10-31 at 6.24.09 AM

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-10-24 at 5.21.05 AM

Value Line Geometric Index 4% Buy Signal: Zweig’s 4% Model Indicator Buy Signal – Actually, developed by Ned Davis based on the Value Line Composite Index. Using $VALUG weekly low of 484.41 from 10/13, this week’s close of 514.90 is 6.3% higher, so this confirms our 10/4 MACD Seasonal Buy sig…[Read more]

Warren Buffett Newsletter rom 1997:

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-10-21 at 4.43.12 AM

J.P. Morgan: Inflation set to decline into 2023

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-10-19 at 12.21.07 PM

Wells Fargo on Holiday Sales

• 

  Screen Shot 2022-10-18 at 8.09.00 AM