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Mislav Matejka sounding less bullish for the first time throughout the whole bull run
JPM head of strategy who has been spot-on during 2019 is for the first time starting to plan exits……for 2H20…..

1. Some negatives could start dominating later on, making 2020 a proverbial year of two halves

2. (further out though) we think that some…[Read more]

Wildcards & volatility generators
JPM lists potential game-changers for 2020

1. application of Hong Kong SAR bill impedes US/China trade deal

2. Chinese economy slows to 5.5% rather than stabilizes

3. Democrats nominate Warren/Sanders; Democrats sweep 2020 elections

4. Fed shift to average inflation targeting delivers very negative real…[Read more]

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Merrill on Nov NFP: “We forecast a solid nonfarm payrolls growth of 195k in November following an increase of 128k in October. Resolution to the GM-UAW strike also supports our call for a solid number. Unemployment rate should hold at 3.6% though the risk is to fall.”

November – sector performance
Not 100% clear-cut “risk-on” with pharma complicating the view

Winners

Health Care: +4.7%

Technology: +3.9%

Financials: +3.3%

Communications: +2.8%

Industrials: +2.8%

Losers

Energy: +0.1%

Real Estate: -1.4%

Utilities: -1.7%