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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Monday he does not think the so-called neutral U.S. interest rate is likely to rise much over the next two years.
“The natural, safe real rate of interest, and hence the appropriate policy rate, is relatively low and unlikely to change very much over the forecast horizon,” Bullard said in a speech to the…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
current look at contango shows slight build from the close on Friday although still not out of the backwardation danger zone ahead of Fed Chair testimony this week and PCE data. Premium members, be sure to review our recent technical analysis and latest Research Report for the week ahead. -
Seth Golden replied to the topic TGT earnings Q4 2017 in the forum Target (TGT) 6 years, 8 months ago
Already own it long but think gross margins will disappoint. Even though company outlined public ally they were willing to give up gross margins in favor of market share, folks forget as they did in each of the previous quarters where stock initially fell post ER. I’d like same scenario where top and bottom line are good but also need good FY18 g…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
REX Shares LLC, which sponsors two volatility-linked products, on Friday announced adjusting those funds so they invest in a different set of underlying instruments than they had before. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fund-volatility/u-s-volatility-fund-sponsor-tweaks-strategy-after-market-plunge-idUSKCN1G804L
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
Premium Subscirbers: We have hit our target on SVXY today. Will update Trade Alerts at day’s end!
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Seth Golden started the topic Fed Sees Moderate Wage gains in the forum Daily Market Action: DOW, NASD, SPX 6 years, 8 months ago
Fed policymakers see an economy that may be past full employment, market prices that are high and overall growth that continues to gather steam. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/23/fed-sees-economy-past-full-employment-but-with-only-moderate-wage-gains.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
TDAmeritrade-Scottrade interview/cast with Russel Rhoads from February 21 https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/19fcf28b-0ae5-44f0-a7af-772df1f14d9e
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Seth Golden started the topic Interesting Take from JP Morgan's Kolanovic on Bond Squeeze in the forum Volatility Playground: Causation of the day! 6 years, 8 months ago
Investors have become so bearish on U.S. government bonds that they risk getting caught out, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s quantitative and derivatives strategy team. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/jpmorgan-s-quants-warn-risks-are-growing-for-bond-short-squeeze
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
Great conversation recorded last year regarding short-VOL, XIV, Chris Cole and others. https://twitter.com/pat_hennessy/status/961004707098447872
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
Art Cashin still warning about the 10yr. yield once it hits the 3% mark. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/22/art-cashin-once-the-10-year-yield-hits-3-percent-all-hell-could-break-loose.html -
Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
I don’t expect pre-market averages to remain flat to slightly positive when the market does open, so I’m setting up a long-against-the-box trade on UVXY (LOB trade).
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
Minutes of the Jan. 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday showed that while several officials expected inflation to move higher this year, only “a couple” of officials were worried about the possibility that the economy would overheat.…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic UBS' Art Cashin says 25-35% chance retest lows in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years, 8 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
“We can’t make policy based on market blips, up and down,” Kashkari said. The Minneapolis Fed president, one of the most dovish central bankers, said that he has “hope” inflation is picking up after a decade of being below the central bank’s 2% target. “We keep saying inflation is right around the corner and then it disappoints us,” Kashkari said…[Read more]
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Christopher Cole of ArtemisCM – Long Vol Strategy in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago
I think Chris has done some great work and maybe over time when compared our results will even out some, but for Artemis they lack the conviction or possibly the ability to participate short-VOL. There’s nothing prohibiting anyone, including myself from being long-VOL during those periods when spikes are present.
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Christopher Cole of ArtemisCM – Long Vol Strategy in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago
Chris republishes this every single year! I agree with every aspect of the economic outlook and so do most economists. But in terms of volatility what Chris fails to acknowledge is the end game. There is no such thing as persistently increasing volatility only that which reverts for a specific period of time which also, can only be sustained for a…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
A federal grand jury has indicted 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities for alleged interference in the 2016 presidential elections, during which they boosted the candidacy of Donald Trump, special counsel Robert Mueller’s office said Friday. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/russians-indicted-in-special-counsel-robert-muellers-probe.html
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Will We Retest Recent Lows on SPX in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 6 years, 8 months ago
@tester I don’t know about parking but committing to larger LOB positions and holding them a bit longer, I’m looking at stubbornly persistence in backwardation.
@thoe99 the core position is where it should be and we’re in backwardation which defies intraday scalps unless one desires the elevated risk. I’m finding it more advantageous to do long…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 6 years, 8 months ago
CBOE Volatiltiy 411 latest video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SYyyCpouEk&feature=youtu.be - Load More