Citi: 1. We expect global equities to still be around current levels in 12 months.

2. We would not chase markets higher from current levels, but would prefer to wait for the next dip.

3. Bull: Global Central banks are likely to buy $6trn of financial assets over the next 12 months, over twice previous peaks.

4. Bear: bottom-up global EPS…[Read more]

Goldman Sachs: Re-acceleration of Covid makes GS cut outlook for service consumption growth in July/August. They downgrade Q3 GDP forecast from +33% (quarter-on-quarter annualized) to 25%.

“The sharp increase in confirmed coronavirus infections in the US has raised fears that the recovery might soon stall. Although a significant part of the…[Read more]

Goldman Sachs on Joe Biden: Don’t fear too much:
“The dominant market issue in our view so far has been Vice President Biden’s proposal to reverse half of President Trump’s cut in the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, which we think could become a strong possibility in the event of a Democratic “sweep”. Given that such a reversal would t…[Read more]

SOTM video: We had a coding issue that has now been fixed. Our apologies everybody!! It is now remedied and viewable!

Merrill on slowdown: “Total card spending turned lower and is now running at -3.8% yoy for the 7-days ending June 27th vs. flat over the prior 7-day period.

The states … with increasing virus cases have led the national slowdown, particularly in restaurants.”

Goldman on NFP: “We estimate nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from the +2.5mn record gain in May to +4.25mn in June (vs. consensus of +3.0mn)”

Morgan Stanley Chief Economist: Looking ahead, we do expect new clusters of infections to emerge, and our base case assumes a second wave in the autumn and winter. However, we think that public health systems will be better positioned to manage the second wave. Testing and tracing capacity are ramping up, the authorities are more attuned to…[Read more]