Friends – Activity – Owen

Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 10 months ago

The Fed upgraded the United States economic recovery in its last meeting.
Historically, the Fed has been very poor at predicting inflation or unemployment, but much better at GDP.

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 10 months ago

S&P 500: Calendar years that traded down -10% or worse at some point during the year, yet finished the year up 10% or more?

All that matches:

Dec-09
Dec-03
Dec-82
Dec-80

Q1 of the next year has then never closed lower.

Harman Bagha replied 3 years, 10 months ago
I’m proficient in law but a layman when it comes to the market. What implication does that data have for the week comming up? Waiting for the right time to short covered volitilty products at the correct time.
- Seth Golden replied 3 years, 10 months ago
  Our Research Report offers greater near term insights to the statistical data

Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 10 months ago

Over 2 million people in the U.S. having received their first dose

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 10 months ago

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 10 months ago

Wells Fargo on fiscal relief economic impact

Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 10 months ago

2009 analogue, continuing into 2010…

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

When the S&P 500 gained 1% or more the week after Black Friday, the next three months averaged a return of 3.9% with over 80% of the returns positive. When next week has…

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

Based on cost estimates of the various provisions and applying the corresponding fiscal multipliers (Chart 1), Bank of America estimates that the new stimulus package…

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

The chart below highlights the average daily change (absolute value) in the S&P 500 (SPX) for each month of the calendar year. Thus far (through 12/9), December is the least volatile on average.

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

Goldman Sachs: $TSLA inclusion will lift the aggregate S&P 500 P/E by just 0.4 turns

Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

Below is an updated look at the stats and profit curve for owning SPX from the close of the Friday before December opex to the close on December opex.

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

According to the latest franchise flow data from BoAM the battle in the trading pit is between a small professional well-trained army of institutions and hedge funds…

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

When SPX closes at a fresh new all-time high and then declines 4 days in a row.

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Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

Wells Fargo

Seth Golden posted an update 3 years, 11 months ago

J.P. Morgan:
1. expect next year to be front-loaded with most of the market upside realized in the first six months of the year

2. continued exceptionally easy monetary policy (US M2 money supply +24% y/y, largest increase since 1940s) and another round of fiscal stimulus ($700-900b) in the near future;

3. COVID-19 vaccine distribution and…[Read more]