Hello Seth, when you are discussing role yield for February when you say the spread is 1.25 are you talking about dollars and is the spread between the spot price of the Vix and February which is M1? Also you’ve said you like to see the spread of 1.5, can you tell me why 1.5 is your number?

When you say that M2 is at two and we are 50% M2 are you…[Read more]

Great , knowledgeable,
well reasoned answer, a view of the post crisis and its byproduct that I never thought of!!
thanks

I know that everyone is really happy that the consumer is spending, but I forgot to mention that for the first time in years the savings rate is dropped to a level seen in 2008

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-spending/u-s-consumer-spending-grows-at-fastest-pace-since-2009-savings-drop-idUSKBN1CZ1GN

Thanks for perspective; i see u live in japan!!

Hi Seth, I think you are right. I made a mistake about the timing of earnings announcements. The third quarter 2007 would’ve been reported as you say in the fourth quarter in November. The market really did not hit the 1200 range until January. There was a low around November 12 which would be during the reporting period of Q3 which happens in…[Read more]

Thanks for your answer.

I was watching the YouTube video at the beginning of this thread. You had mentioned that Q3 earnings in 2007 had declined by approximately 7% from the previous year. I guess these earnings are reported to the public in January 2008. If you take a look at the market low in January 23, 2008 and you see a number very close…[Read more]

I’m a little confused about volatility and the market . It seems clear that the Fed has gotten the message that low rates havwe been going on for too long. QE has been stopped. In Europe , starting now, bond buying has been halfed and will stop in September. I think that the news put out is the Fed is worried about a flat economy , but if you…[Read more]