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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Quick profit on Finom Group’s trade alert for TVIX overnight -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
The below is being relayed by the European Commission, saying that both leaders will have a telephone call later this afternoon.
The pound is continuing to hold more optimistic on the day amid talks of opposition leaders hoping to stop a no-deal Brexit but also as Boris Johnson is seen to be more optimistic about avoiding a no-deal outcome…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
David Kostin of Goldman Sachs: “Our year-end S&P 500 price target of 3100 represents a 9% return from the current level. However, US-China trade represents a significant source of uncertainty to our projection; a downside scenario could see the S&P 500 end 2019 at roughly 2620, or 8% below the current level”
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
“China called last night our top trade people and said ‘let’s get back to the table’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world,” Trump said. htt…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Christopher Holland are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden and Matt Jones are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
CME FedWatch Tool suggests 93% probability for a 25 bps rate cut at FOMC’s next meeting in mid-September. -
Seth Golden and logos are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
This was an awesome email I received yesterday from a former member who has moved into a new career, but still remembers our position in $TGT. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Morgan Stanley: “The problem is that last month’s consumer confidence reports suggested consumers took the first cut in a decade as a potential signal of an oncoming r… -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Using the wide/narrow button we can see that term structure remains extremely flat. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs on Risk Events
1. The sharpness of the rally has swung our tactical options-implied positioning indicator (OPI) from neutral to close to overbought territory.2. This switch in positioning metrics is occurring just as UST 10s are hovering around our 1.5% overshoot level.
3. Bonds could of course stay overbought for a while,…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and pluckyduck are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Bread and butter housing is coming back. Single-family housing starts hit their best level since January. Single-family housing permits hit their best level since November 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/us-housing-starts—july-2019.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Weekly flows from BofAML
1. Cash: biggest 13-week flows into MMFs since Jan’09 ($319bn)2. ICI money market fund assets ($3.4tn) at 10-year high.
3. Weekly flows: $16.0bn into bonds; $4.7 out of equities.
4. Bonds: 9 biggest ever inflows to govt bonds ($4.7bn).
5. Credit: 5 biggest ever IG inflows ($10.7bn), tiny into HY ($0.2bn), small out…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Terry Redmann are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
J.P. Morgan’s Mislav: “At the overall market level, while we remain positive on stocks for the year, we are in the short term advocating a pullback, lasting perhaps a few weeks, similar to the May experience, of a high-single-digit weakness. We look to step in after the poor August seasonals pass, and as positioning overhang improves. The…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
“we have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war. In our baseline policy scenario, we now estimate a peak cumulative drag on the level of GDP of… -
Seth Golden and kfin are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 2 months ago
1. China isn’t so much aggressively devaluing its currency as it’s giving in to market forces (the CNY would likely be much weaker vs. the USD if it were to trade fully and freely).
2. The 9/1 China tariffs can still be avoided – Trump didn’t condemn the entire trade negotiation process in his 9/1 tariff threat but instead took issue w/the p…[Read more]
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