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Seth Golden and David Mamelli are now friends 5 years ago
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Seth Golden started the topic Goldman Cuts Apple… Again in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs just significantly slashed its price target for Apple, predicting 26% downside to the shares because of a “material negative impact” on earnings for the accounting method the iPhone maker will use for an Apple TV+ trial.
“We believe that Apple plans to account for its 1-year trial for TV+ as a ~$60 discount to a combined hardw…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic Wal-Mart Unlimited Grocery Delivery in the forum State of Retail in U.S. 5 years, 1 month ago
Walmart said Thursday it will be expanding a new “unlimited” grocery delivery service, which costs users $98 annually, to 1,400 stores this fall. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/12/walmart-expands-its-unlimited-grocery-delivery-service-nationwide.html?recirc=taboolainternal
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
JPM on ECB
1. ECB Rate decision(Slightly dovish): Overall the decision was mixed but in aggregate more dovish than anticipated (because of the forward guidance), especially following this week’s repricing by the market.2. Rates(Hawkish): Smaller than anticipated cut(-10bps while markets were pricing approx. -14bps)
3. Forward Guidance(Very d…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Central bank activity update -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Citigroup says fade the banks:
1. Fade the rally – Bank share prices will likely reconnect with earnings2. 2020E cons. EPS is -12% YTD vs SX7P +4%.
3. Deposit tiering and new TLTRO terms are minor positives, but largely offset by the rate cut. Overall consensus EPS risk is to the downside
4. We believe fiscal stimulus is required for
banks t…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and bruce paton are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Morgan Stanley: More on MoMO sell-offs and subsequent equity performance
1. As of yesterday’s close, Momentum has posted a -15.9% move lower from its last peak on September 3 (five trading sessions have passed since).2. Since 1999, there have been 11 instances where Momentum has moved lower by 15% or more in consecutive trading sessions.
3. On…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Liquidity improved in May and August -
Seth Golden replied to the topic Berstein on Fund Flows in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
How big a cut to earnings forecasts is coming? does not matter – all priced in anyhow….
1. Bernstein expects earnings forecasts to be cut in the coming months following the slowing macro data this summer2. expect 12 month forward US earnings growth to be 4.5%, which is well below the combination of consensus for 1.9% growth for 2019 and 10.6%…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs:
Jan Hatzius:1. Beyond September/October, we think the environment will become less supportive for further Fed rate cuts.
2. This is mostly because core PCE inflation will likely turn sharply higher on a year-on-year basis, for two reasons.
3. First, the current year-on-year rate is depressed by outliers to the downside in late…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Why did US Banks rally 3.5%?
1. the bank complex traded very well on Mon and led its cyclical peers higher.2. The fundamental driver for the strength was better-than-feared presentations from mgmt. teams at the Barclays conf.
3. Investors were worried about gloomy mid-Q updates given the trajectory of rates but that didn’t happen. Citigroup, C…[Read more]
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
MS on Market Rotation
1. active investors (long onlies and HFs) are not embracing / chasing this move2. US trading desk has been way better to sell in the cyclical sectors over the past few days, from active / real money
3. on the surface move appears to be driven by macro/quant sector/factor rebalancing
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Seth Golden and Jinhua Pan are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden started the topic Goldman on Trade in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
GOLDMAN SACHS: “While we no longer expect a comprehensive trade deal with China, we think the more likely path is one in which President Trump puts tariffs on the back burner as we approach the November 2020 election.”
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
MS Cross Asset Strategist, Andrew Sheets:
“Last week’s rally shined a light on the market’s bull case, and the importance of a better economy to that story. Given our cautious views on growth, trade progress and central bank action relative to consensus, we maintain our cautious stance. But this week was a shot across the bow: if we’re wrong…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and JJ are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
though a substantial fraction of this rise in activity comes from an increased propensity to retweet others.” -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Trump has averaged 10+ tweets a day since the start of 2016. “Starting in late 2018, however, activity has picked up substantially. The highest volume of tweets over the past four years has in fact come in recent months.” - Load More