GS: “Our economists forecast that global growth will rebound next year, such that the deceleration since late-2017 will prove to be a mid-cycle slowdown rather than a recession”.
GS Estimates relatively benign $11b of US equities for sale. Unclear if this is quarter focused – as monthly rebalance flows normally significantly larger than quarterly.

Guggenheim, saying it’s “late to the party,” ups $SNAP to buy, $22 target. “… under-appreciated core fundamental momentum at the company, particularly with difficult-to-reach younger users in the U.S. and expansion potential outside the United States.”

Investment implications

Most worries do not provide a basis for overall market action. Trying to time the market using headlines is a road to ruin. Some worries provide opportunities or warnings about specific stocks or sectors. This requires doing your homework to find the right themes. Then you must be contrarian, acting when others are…[Read more]

Buybacks:

* Microsoft ($40b)
* Target ($5b)
* Darden ($500m)

A member of #China’s negotiating trade team will visit #US farmers in Nebraska and Montana next week, reported SCMP citing a source.
The senior official is from China’s Ministry of Agriculture, but the report didn’t name the official.

GOLDMAN: “We do not believe that this widening in repurchase spreads is a precursor to a period of financial market stress – it appears to be driven by technical factors, rather than diminishing investor confidence in the market, as we saw in 2008 ..”

If the first two cuts in a new cycle are 25 basis points, stocks historically have done quite well. Last 5 cycles saw S&P 500 up 9.7% six months later and 16.7% a year later.

Brexit Update from JPM
JPM: As the threat of an October no-deal Brexit fades, a January no-deal event is a rising risk. Parliament passed a law forcing PM Johnson to request an extension by October 19 if no deal can be reached with the EU, and talks between the two sides show little progress. It looks likely that Johnson will either have to renege…[Read more]

Goldman Sachs:
1. GS estimates CTA/trend length is moderately net long again (~$75bn global eq), and expect some moderate near-term buying to continue in the baseline and most mkt scenarios to re-establish more long positions.

2. For the systematic macro community, more trend signals continued to turn positive last week – especially at the…[Read more]