This has really been a pro-longed up period for VXX, TVIX and UVXY. It’s been almost 2 months since Feb 5. Usually the VIX drops rather quickly. I hope VXX stays below $40. Any thoughts on whether we could see another spike in the VIX? I’m really worried Feb 5 happens again. VXX hasn’t had enough time to decay and we’ve not had 5%+ contang…[Read more]

Thanks, Seth. Yes, every article he’s written seem to portend the end of markets as we know it (markets feeding on itself).

How can you be so sure? Somehow this vix increase feels different… economic fundamentals are intact, now it’s fear of overvaluation pushes by the media. Might actually succeed in wiping out many unprepared short vols.

There’s still a short term backwardation to worry about on the m1/m2s

Looks like futures are back in contango again. Good news?

I’m in it to win it. Futures look red all around, I think it’ll be a bloodbath tomorrow. Recent XIV and SVXY players are definitely jumping off the seemingly sinking ship.

Now that I think about it, I agree. 2008 simulated models show the vix spiking more than 300% and being in backwardation for weeks. On top of that, brokerages like IB add a 400% margin requirement for UVXY. I can see that 10k easily getting margin called and wiped out, with no time to react. Not only that, you could end up owing your brokerage…[Read more]

When a black swan event happens, wouldn’t we at FinomGroup be on top of it? I mean, it doesn’t happen in a day. The 2008 crash was really bad but it took some time. I know ppl say we can’t time the market, but I’d like to think we can at least assess and react to it (by putting on hedges like Richard Jenkins mentioned).

Excellent Opportunity, like how @seth-golden and @david-moadel puts it. I’m glad I have liquidity going into this, just need to be disciplined when layering my shorts. I expect it to spike, but I sometimes short it too early.

My plan:
1. watch finomgroup for advice and guidance from the pros
2. only commit 10% of funds a day to short vol
3.…[Read more]

Made an easy $900 just selling 100 SVXY Jan19 139 calls @ 0.10 per pop this morning. Thanks!

Thanks, Seth! Your mention on the “hits/clicks” certainly explains a lot why these doom and gloom headlines are so popular. Here’s another one today: The bond market is about to do something that could spell trouble for stocks

I have to constantly remind myself that the media’s interests more often do not aligned with main st investors. That’s…[Read more]

Thanks for the warning, but given that we’re in backwardation in the short term (Feb VIX @ 12.03 and Spot VIX @ 12.23), this is a safe trade. There’s no way that SVXY would jump up 7% in a day with downward pressure from backwardation and the VIX. More likely than not, SVXY will bleed down to the low 120s next week if VIX continues its upward…[Read more]

You could sell opposing positions to “hedge” your trade, which IB encourages, in order to reduce your margin requirement. IB simply does not like you taking naked short positions. I’ve done this before – short VXX while at the same time capping your losses with call options. I do this with a tilt towards short vol. You make less profits, but at…[Read more]

Thanks, David! I actually have bi-directional trades for that one. I owned 400 SVXY on a $135 cost basis and sold 4 127.5 calls to hedge in case volatility spiked up, which was what you and Seth warned 1-2 weeks ago with traders buying protection in the futures markets. The trade worked well, I’m not worried with the brief fall to the LOD @ $…[Read more]

I sold 127.5 Jan 19 calls of SVXY for $12 when SVXY was at 136 a month ago. Thought I made a mistake, but now am glad I did. The question is, should I wait till expiry or take profits and run?

I think this is just a temporary correction and Bitcoin or other alt coins should rise back up again. Reason being that more products will be introduced that would feature Bitcoin or some blockchain technology, therefore increasing its utility. Are we in a bubble? Sure, but it’s only been over a month that Bitcoin made a move to 20,000. At some p…[Read more]