kellykline – Finom Group

kellykline started the topic Did the 10-Year Yield Just Drop -8% Today? in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 1 month ago

I don’t get it… anyone care to explain? Bug on investing.com?

kellykline started the topic Bloomberg: VIX Could Go Much Lower Just as Hedge Funds Bet on Its Futures in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 1 month ago

Hi @seth-golden, I’m glad to read this article but wondering what your thoughts are. We’re almost at the end of the year, and many are saying that there should be a Santa rally. Wouldn’t that cause the vix to be pushed lower? We’ve been in backwardation for quite a…[Read more]

kellykline replied to the topic Volatility Ahead? $200B Tariffs Monday in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 3 months ago

Yup, things are going to get pretty bad this week…

Faced with fresh threats of U.S. tariffs, China is considering declining the Trump administration’s offer of trade talks this month, officials say.

kellykline replied to the topic Hedging TVIX short position in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 3 months ago

Got it, thx. I use http://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com and yeah I agree, fighting a lot of theta decay with calls. You do have the really big upside if vix spikes above the call price. Delta+gamma+Vega really working for you, maybe that’s why the calls are a lot more expensive.

Bloomberg and the Cboe vix is reporting one trader making a big b…[Read more]

kellykline replied to the topic Hedging TVIX short position in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 3 months ago

@retiredmarine1214 why a put spread? why not just sell vix puts outright say $14 Dec contracts? I just can’t imagine that we won’t have a spike to 14s by the end of the year… Even in 2017 when VIX was in the 9s, it did have spikes up to 13/14s. Or buy calls of the vix and have unlimited upside (in case a Feb 5th event happens again).

kellykline replied to the topic Volatility Ahead? $200B Tariffs Monday in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 3 months ago

Looks like Seth has answered this question on the latest research report on the Yield Curve Rherotic.

Thank you!

kellykline started the topic Volatility Ahead? $200B Tariffs Monday in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 3 months ago

Should we expect more volatility ahead this coming 2 weeks to end the month? According to Reuters, Trump will likely announce $200B of tariffs as early as Monday. However, seems the market has already reacted and recovered on Friday, so could this be old news already priced into the markets?…[Read more]

kellykline started the topic Books on Trading and Technical Analysis in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 4 months ago

Hi @seth-golden and anyone, looking for book recommendations to become a better trader and chart reader. Any must reads and foundational reads? Also, what expectations should we have after reading those books? Thanks in advance!

kellykline replied to the topic Trade War in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago

@seth-golden totally agree with your points and am learning a bunch.

It’s a great day today after Pres. Xi announced plans to ‘open’ China. I frankly did not expect that, thought there would be more ‘tit’ for ‘tat’.

Could this be the start of the vix term structure going back into contango? M1 and M2 seem to be flattening. I hope earnings…[Read more]

kellykline replied to the topic Trade War in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago

Thanks @seth-golden! Am I reading this wrong or is VXX not spiking as much as back in Feb?

Also, the VXST/VIX ratio is still above 1. Shouldn’t it fall below 1 historically?

The longer we’re in backwardation, the more VXX will continue to creep higher. Just very concerned – VXX seem to move up 50 cents every day due to…[Read more]

kellykline started the topic Trade War in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago

Any thoughts on the escalating trade war between China and the US? Experts say there’s a low probability of an all out war, but seems the tit-for-tat is escalating between the Trump administration and the PRC. I do not think Trump understands the core social value of “saving face” in Asian culture. The PRC is not going to back down, and neither is…[Read more]

kellykline replied to the topic Price predictions for vxx/uvxy/tvix in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago

Spot VIX has been elevated since hitting 50s on Feb 8th this year. Does that mean the longer spot VIX stays elevated, the VIX term structure has nowhere to go but up?

This period of elevated VIX is very concerning. All economic indicators show strength and global growth, and yet it’s been extremely volatile the past two months, almost similar to…[Read more]

kellykline replied to the topic Price predictions for vxx/uvxy/tvix in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 8 months ago

Anyone knows where i can get pre-split charts on long vol products like VXX?
Trying to find out how high VXX can go from the lows historically (2x?). Also, the splits seem to create a misleading chart. Does that mean if I shorted 1 stock of VXX 10 years ago that it’ll be worth 120K today? Not likely, right?

kellykline replied to the topic Shiller P/E Over 30 in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 6 years, 9 months ago

Thanks @seth-golden! That makes sense. Forward PE of 17 is about average and corp earnings are looking really good. Looks like there’s more left in this bull market.

Found this JP Morgan Guide to the Market Q1 2018: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/insights/guide-to-the-markets/viewer