@jakegracy
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 10 months ago
Inventory Restocking -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 10 months ago
Bernstein raises oil price forecasts: “remain confident the stocks will reconnect…”
1. Our 2020 forecast moves to $68/bbl from $71/bbl, 2021 to $71/bbl from $72/bbl,… -
Seth Golden and
sbs2458 are now friends 4 years, 10 months ago
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Seth Golden replied to the topic J.P. Morgan's Matejka sees significant new highs ahead in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 4 years, 10 months ago
1) Our call remains that one should not expect a US recession over the next year. The Global PMI downturn that was in force over the past 18 months is likely ending. Global manufacturing PMI has been stable for three months in a row now, with new orders to inventories ratio moving above 1.M1 is up strongly and it leads PMIs.
2. Likely trade truce…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 10 months ago
Tariff elasticities are much larger than previously believed -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 10 months ago
JPM prime brokerage data indicates that net exposure to equities across regions has only recently moved into net positive territory. -
Seth Golden and
offroader are now friends 4 years, 10 months ago
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Seth Golden started the topic Michael Hartnett BofAML in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 4 years, 11 months ago
S&P500 3333 by March 3rd, GT10 2.2% by Feb 2nd…we still see Q4/Q1 upside as positioning far from max bullish, central banks adding liquidity, PMIs inflecting, oil rallying
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
How are investors positioned, offense vs. defense via the XLY:XLP ratio -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
Technology continues to show strong long-term relative strength. -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
Oil looking good as OPEC meetings begin -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
J.P. Morgan: “The S&P 500 Index pulls back from short-term overbought conditions, but the chart lacks patterns and signals that indicate a lasting bearish trend… -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
So what happened to make the market decline today. We can certainly suggest headlines regarding tariffs & the subpar ISM data. But the reality is nothing caused the… -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
Mislav Matejka sounding less bullish for the first time throughout the whole bull run
JPM head of strategy who has been spot-on during 2019 is for the first time starting to plan exits……for 2H20…..1. Some negatives could start dominating later on, making 2020 a proverbial year of two halves
2. (further out though) we think that some…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
Goldman Sachs: Positioning: getting more bullish but is still far from January 2018 levels -
Seth Golden and
Rodney are now friends 4 years, 11 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
Have you hedged the exuberance melt-up risk?
Since 1960, every bull market has peaked with a period of exuberance….…marked by the Risk Premium declining to below 3%. Today we are at 5.5%.
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
Wildcards & volatility generators
JPM lists potential game-changers for 20201. application of Hong Kong SAR bill impedes US/China trade deal
2. Chinese economy slows to 5.5% rather than stabilizes
3. Democrats nominate Warren/Sanders; Democrats sweep 2020 elections
4. Fed shift to average inflation targeting delivers very negative real…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 11 months ago
When VIX-linked ETPs roll to the next month, they sell front-month futures on the volatility gauge to buy second-month ones. And when that activity becomes a larger… -
Seth Golden and
rob5k are now friends 4 years, 11 months ago
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