Barclays: too early to fade the rally
Expect any potential near term

pullback to be of limited magnitude

1) Long-only investor positioning is still

light and the ‘Fear Of Missing Out’ should support steady equity inflows

2) Key consumer and employment data is resilient in US and Europe, manufacturing destocking is well advanced and…[Read more]

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Morgan Stanley US Public Policy strategist Michael Zezas notes that the Phase 1 US/China trade deal likely helped avoid an early-onset recession, but wasn’t a game-changer that will enable global capex to find another gear. There’s also reason to argue that the onset of Phase 2 negotiations may work against the current US/China trade stasis. Pha…[Read more]

Over the past 15 years, average S&P 500 stock realized volatility has increased 10% from December to January

Jeff Currie: “Absent a major supply disruption, we therefore believe that price risks are skewed to the downside in coming weeks, with oil prices already trading above our fundamental fair value of $63/bbl ahead of the recent events, buoyed by an over-enthusiastic December risk-on rally in the face of limited evidence of a material acceleration in…[Read more]

January key events

Thursday, January 9: France – Pension reform negotiations. Start of the second round of negotiations between the government and trade unions on the pension reform.

Tuesday, January 14: United States – Comments due on proposed tariffs on imports from France. The US Trade Representative proposed tariffs on imports from France as…[Read more]