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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 8 months ago
JPM takes downs China Q1 GDP again: now to 1% and highlights possible -3.9% scenario
JPM: We revise China’s 2020 growth forecasts in response to the latest d… -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 8 months ago
A 3-day, 3% or more surge to new a new ATH close, following a -2% or worse decline the preceding 5 days, has been rare & VERY red. This is more interesting than useful but doesn’t lend well to sentiment. -
Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley Positive in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 4 years, 8 months ago
MS: Coronavirus mitigation actions a potential tailwind to App Store growth in China
Investors continue to focus on the potential impact Coronavirus could have on Apple’s sales in China; however, App Store data from Jan ’20 shows actions taken to limit the spread of Coronavirus could actually be a tailwind to App Store results in China. Await…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 8 months ago
JPM: We had thought a deceleration in viral case growth rate could help calm investor anxiety, but we are surprised to see markets rebound so quickly
Over the past week, the growth rate fell from a 50% day-over-day 5-day average to near 20%. While that represents a meaningful decline, it does not yet confirm the success of the policies implemented…[Read more] -
Seth Golden and Doris Berriz are now friends 4 years, 8 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
Wuhan a major manufacturing hub in Central China’s Hubei Province
for semiconductor, panel and auto sectors
In the short term, a delay in product delivery, coupled with logistics issues brought about by the lockdown of Wuhan, could cut supplies for smartphone and computer makers in urgent need of chips and displays to assemble electronic…[Read more] -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
JPM: Corona consumer channel checks
1. shopping malls or department stores that were still open during the period also saw a sharp traffic decline (down 80%~100%)2. In Shanghai, restaurants were losing 80-100% of their reservations, as consumers try to reduce social activities
3. Several provinces such as Sichuan ordered the suspension of…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic Latest from JPM in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 4 years, 9 months ago
JPM: looking through Corona – fundamental backdrop for equities is supportive – 7 reasons to buy
1 the Global PMI downturn that was in force over the past 18 months is likely ending2. Rising trade uncertainty during that time was a significant headwind, but the recent ceasefire should drive a bounce
3. current crisis pushes Chinese policymakers…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
Gross leverage of the overall book decreased -0.6 pts to 244.6% (93rd percentile) and Net leverage decreased -2.5 pts to 69.5% (72nd percentile) -
Seth Golden and Sandra salz are now friends 4 years, 9 months ago
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Seth Golden and Pankesh Jariwala are now friends 4 years, 9 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
Canaccord Genuity: The combination of better-than-expected Q4/19 EPS, strong credit, and an easy Fed makes it hard to be overly negative, while the still overbought tactical condition and unknown macro impact from the spreading coronavirus makes it difficult to be too positive. Indeed, these crosscurrents reinforce our decision to move to a…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
Already a nice shift to the June FFF showing an increased probability for a rate cut in June. Needs to get to above 60% of course, but it’s heading there as of the present. -
Seth Golden and rzssun are now friends 4 years, 9 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
JPM iPhone installed base -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
JPM: “We think global consumers are well positioned for an improvement in spending data this quarter after a weak gain in 4Q19. This path, however, might be disrupted by a shock to activity in China from the coronavirus outbreak” -
Seth Golden posted an update 4 years, 9 months ago
VIX’s RSI is above 75. When this happened before, VIX’s forward returns were HEAVILY bearish. VIX fell 96% of the time 1 week later. -
Seth Golden and philmorris7 are now friends 4 years, 9 months ago
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