He’s recently been put in charge of some aspect of the CBOE Bitcoin initiative, so if you want to know about Bitcoin vol, and future product offerings, he is the guy.

“Trump’s not a single-digit VIX President” — Russell Rhoades

For 2018, I’m calling a 7-handle VIX print and an 8-handle settle.

That guy is right VXX and UVXY put spreads. Not call spreads. Mark Sebastian hammers this point. Puts and put spreads.

Here is the best one that CML Trade Machine has identified, 50d30d VXX put spread 90 days out.

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=T4unpVQsI1oLuGAo

If you can find a vol products spread that backtests with better numbers…[Read more]

This is a repeat of Dotcom. Any name with “online” in it was insanely bullish.

True that it’s risky to short, if there is anything I have learned from bitcoin it’s that.

But I shorted RIOT, a ten-lot on the JAN 18, just to get the bragging rights.

I dunno what the target should be. For example, somebody suggested closing my VXX 10 puts once they get to a dollar. My cost basis is about .35 cents. Seems like a very reasonable target. But since this is the first time I’ve done this, I would like to hear various views.

The fact is, nobody knows nothin’, not even the smartest guy at JPM.

We are all so addicted to and blinded by statistics that we forget statistics are backward looking. Some guy says there is 5% chance of something happening. Let me translate that, “In the past, this happened in 5% of cases.” Statistics are based on the past record. They do not…[Read more]

Margin on the very back month contract is $2500, and it slowly increases till you get to the front month, which is typically around $6000.

If you were to try to hold even the back month through a 2008 event it would expand over 10X. You can simulate the effects of an event on it by stepping through the historical term structure at…[Read more]

>>already existing medical grade products

This reminds me of the nutty story from “Four Hour Body” of Tim Ferris having a diabetic-use glucose monitor embedded in his chest and having to tear it out in order to pass through airport security. When Tim gets the nex-next gen Apple Watch he won’t have to engage in self mutilation in the airport…[Read more]

Russel Rhoades, a/k/a Dr. VIX, is a fixture on the weekly Volatility Views podcast.

The game changer will be the glucose sensor. Once you can monitor blood glucose in real time, that’s a big weapon against lifestyle diseases, Type 2 diabetes, etc.

Vineer Bhansali makes the point (very good recent Meb Faber podcast) that this unprecedented low vol market is a reflection of negative interest rates in Germany (and elsewhere, including Italy and Japan). He asserts that the vol is being transferred from internationally.

Institutions like pension funds. They must get 6% to meet their commitments…[Read more]

I think what’s happening is that big players are using VIX to get more short deltas so they can buy more long FANG deltas.

Greed rather than fear.

It’s kinda creepy to think that some contractor at the NSA is going to be able to monitor my heartbeat.

TW just put a $10 commissions cap on options trades, so that makes it practical to short the both of these.
Or else get a Robinhood account for this purpose, once they roll out the free options.