I don’t personally have percentages I allocate to anything. I am a position trader so I vary my positions as time goes by. There is no way I am going to just get or stay long the stock market at these levels. I prefer to stay in cash until I see short to medium term trading opportunities. I think the concept that markets always rally is a boomer…[Read more]

Maybe you could buy some SVXY puts or put spreads or sell some svxy calls….

I have taken the contrarian view for a long time that Bitcoin will never again break $10k. I have been saying that for a long time now…. And I was wrong for a while about Bitcoin. My friends bought it for around $3k and I didn’t do it…… I tried to get them to sell all the way up… and I was wrong. But since Jan I have been right and if for…[Read more]

I am courting him for an interview so be nice. I think he has a lot to contribute to the conversation here… Anyway here is a link to something recent from him:

https://www.macrovoices.com/360-chris-cole-volatility-and-the-alchemy-of-risk

Since VXX is based on futures that last a month at the longest and is derived from those futures, just looking at a price chart of vxx doesn’t really give you much information on how high it could go. Also, vix futures typically lag the vix on big moves. For example on a 200% up move in the vix, the futures may only move 80%. I would suggest that…[Read more]

Guy Gilbert you are so smart. It is almost like you are a professor….

TVIX is still 2x. I wish TVIX had options that would solve everything. I could switch my options positions to TVIX and it would be just like the old UVXY.

We came out of contango today but hopefully we will return to contango tomorrow. At least the term structure does still slope upward from m2 on out and the back months were up almost as much as the front months today which was reassuring…

I have a friend who bought $250k worth of FB LEAPS with stock around $40 and rode it all the way up to like $120… He of course now thinks he is a genius but I have to give it to him. He did well on that one. I think now he is long $SQ…

Hi. I know I am in the minority, but I am predicting that Bitcoin has seen it’s best days and it never again gets about $15k. I think blockchain stocks have value but the actual coins do not. As I said I am in the minority but I see the trend of all these alt coins fading. It is not a popular opinion unfortunately but nonetheless.. 🙂

Hi Philip. I am part of this group of guys on Stocktwits who trade uvxy. Probably about 1/3 of our group of guys lost everything no Feb 5th. It is clear we will reach the ATL again in UVXY the quesition is of course, when. To me it totally depends on the term structure. If the term structure can stay in contango and average over 5% then things…[Read more]

If you are long SVXY here I would look at the future prospects for this ETP in terms of percentage moves. With it trading around $11 an excellent run from here with it up 100% would bring it to $22…. If you think somehow it is going to bounce back to $100 overnight or even over the course of a year, I am afraid you are mistaken. Forget about…[Read more]

It seems Seth is not alone drawing a connection between interest rates being raised and increased volatility in the market. I have heard several others draw that parallel. People also seem to say that with the Fed increasing rates, the market in general may sell off. Of course, the Fed raises rates for several reasons. Conventional wisdom would…[Read more]