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Seth Golden and logos are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
This was an awesome email I received yesterday from a former member who has moved into a new career, but still remembers our position in $TGT. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Morgan Stanley: “The problem is that last month’s consumer confidence reports suggested consumers took the first cut in a decade as a potential signal of an oncoming r… -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Using the wide/narrow button we can see that term structure remains extremely flat. -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs on Risk Events
1. The sharpness of the rally has swung our tactical options-implied positioning indicator (OPI) from neutral to close to overbought territory.2. This switch in positioning metrics is occurring just as UST 10s are hovering around our 1.5% overshoot level.
3. Bonds could of course stay overbought for a while,…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and pluckyduck are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Bread and butter housing is coming back. Single-family housing starts hit their best level since January. Single-family housing permits hit their best level since November 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/us-housing-starts—july-2019.html
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Weekly flows from BofAML
1. Cash: biggest 13-week flows into MMFs since Jan’09 ($319bn)2. ICI money market fund assets ($3.4tn) at 10-year high.
3. Weekly flows: $16.0bn into bonds; $4.7 out of equities.
4. Bonds: 9 biggest ever inflows to govt bonds ($4.7bn).
5. Credit: 5 biggest ever IG inflows ($10.7bn), tiny into HY ($0.2bn), small out…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Terry Redmann are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
J.P. Morgan’s Mislav: “At the overall market level, while we remain positive on stocks for the year, we are in the short term advocating a pullback, lasting perhaps a few weeks, similar to the May experience, of a high-single-digit weakness. We look to step in after the poor August seasonals pass, and as positioning overhang improves. The…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
“we have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war. In our baseline policy scenario, we now estimate a peak cumulative drag on the level of GDP of… -
Seth Golden and kfin are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
1. China isn’t so much aggressively devaluing its currency as it’s giving in to market forces (the CNY would likely be much weaker vs. the USD if it were to trade fully and freely).
2. The 9/1 China tariffs can still be avoided – Trump didn’t condemn the entire trade negotiation process in his 9/1 tariff threat but instead took issue w/the p…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Bernstein US Economist discusses the increased risks to the cycle with the trade war entering a new phase. He still sees the direct linkages of trade wars as too small… -
Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
Latest notes on S&P 500 and Trade:
1) the ~2850 level should still be thought of as support and moves up through 2900 w/o 9/1 resolution will likely be faded2)the odds of avoiding the 9/1 tariffs are likely above 50% right now
3)rescinding the Sept 1 threat doesn’t necessarily change the dynamic dramatically –the ~$178 figure would still sta…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Steve Popichak are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
There were 262 new 52-week lows on the NYSE yesterday compared to 252 at the low in May and 1,271 at the low in December ’18.
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
When the Fed cuts rates, banks take a hit. -
Seth Golden and mgrocki are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden and Chi are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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