Per Morgan Stanley
3 observations from Morgan Stanley:

1. Positioning is now lighter than even 2015 / 2016, and most cases since 2008.

2. $450B of equity has left Mutual Funds and ETFs into money markets this year.

2. Exposure-wise, L/S HF nets are < 5th %-ile, while Systematic leverage is in the 20-30th %-ile.

Mislav´s 5 reasons to remain bullish:
1) Fed is easing, but without HY spreads or jobless claims spiking, both of which typically deteriorate into a recession. Crucially, if initial Fed cuts are not followed by a recession, the next 3, 6 and 12 months equity returns were historically very strong–

2) Global activity momentum is likely to look be…[Read more]

Friday’s NFP May prove of greater significance than most are currently considering. Recall in Feb. 2018 the NFPs wave component accelerated beyond economists’ projections and investors feared it would prove a lasting inflationary contributor. Markets were rocked by 1,000 point moves on the Dow. Beyond the headline number and with companies loo…[Read more]

The Morgan Stanley QDS Pension Rebalancing Model estimates that there will be $30 to $40bn inflows to Equities from pensions through the first week of September, and an estimated $40bn has likely hit the market already this month – for a total of $75bn inflows from the first week of August through the first week of September.

The below is being relayed by the European Commission, saying that both leaders will have a telephone call later this afternoon.

The pound is continuing to hold more optimistic on the day amid talks of opposition leaders hoping to stop a no-deal Brexit but also as Boris Johnson is seen to be more optimistic about avoiding a no-deal outcome…[Read more]

David Kostin of Goldman Sachs: “Our year-end S&P 500 price target of 3100 represents a 9% return from the current level. However, US-China trade represents a significant source of uncertainty to our projection; a downside scenario could see the S&P 500 end 2019 at roughly 2620, or 8% below the current level”

“China called last night our top trade people and said ‘let’s get back to the table’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world,” Trump said. htt…[Read more]