Still no FY2022 Earnings cut

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The Investing Mattrix

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Never has S&P 500 been negative from November-April of a midterm cycle since 1942, batting .1000!

The starting point remains to be determined, but the buy signal is undeniable.

Average return ~17%
Positivity rate = 100%

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Morgan Stanley mid-year outlook:

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J.P. Morgan’s Mislav:

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Nasdaq stocks above their 200DMA only 12%:

Many bottom fishing indicators. I would suggest of the many, some will achieve their destiny, but not all will, nor do all signal the bottom together

Bottoms:
2011- 10%
2016- 12%
2019- 10%
2020- 3% (crash)

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Merrill Lynch:

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Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson:

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J.P. Morgan’s Dubravko:

“We are revising down our 2022 S&P 500 EPS from $235 to $230 (still a healthy ~10% y/y growth). Our estimates for revenue growth (8-9%) and gross buybacks (~$1 trillion) are largely unchanged…”

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Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson

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There have been 31 weeks when fewer than 20% of respondents in the AAII survey were bullish.

After 29 of them, $SPX rallied over the next 3,6,12 months.

💥 $SPX 3-mnth avg. = +5.5%
💥 6-mnth avg. = +12.2%
💥 Pos % rate = 94% & 97%

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Quite the divergence in Nasdaq price vs. breadth

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J.P. Morgan Card Spending data link here: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/covid-19/section-4.pdf

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Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson:

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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee:

Even as 1Q 2022 ends on a sour note, >90% 💥 probability that bottom for 2022 in.

$SPX fell >6% below its 200DMA and closed >200D = 31 times since WWII = bullish signal

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FundStrat’s Tom Lee

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