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Seth Golden replied to the topic Hedging TVIX short position in the forum UVXY, TVIX, VXX, XIV, SVXY, VIXY, VMAX, VMIN 5 years, 2 months ago
On a $100k account $20-$30k at the high end. But the way one goes about acquiring that position reduces the risk. In other words, we don’t go out tomorrow and acquire up to $30k of UVXY/TVIX/VXX. We have to identify what Volatility regime we are in and will possibly be in over the next 6 months. Then we start scalping trades. Short day 200 s…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
CITI: “.. we change our Fed call to expecting a 50bp cut in July, .. and keep an open mind about further easing later in the year. We had previously long expected the Fed to cut by 25bp in July and another 25bp in September, ..”
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
Wow, huge move today in Fed Fund Futures after Williams and Clarida comments -
Seth Golden and Nelly N. are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Prime Day July 15 & 16 this year in the forum Amazon Retail 5 years, 2 months ago
AMZN vs RETAIL
1. Amazon captured the bulk of online spending during the first 24 hours of its Prime Day event2. online shoppers spent more than 10 times as much money on Amazon in the first day than they did on Walmart and EBay combined, according to e-commerce Edison Trends.
3. Sales in the first 24 hours were up 53% compared to the same…[Read more]
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Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 2 months ago
By JPM Market Intelligence team
1) monetary expectations – If the big upcoming decisions (ECB on 7/25 and/or the FOMC on 7/31) were to disappoint, the multiple expansion process could stall (or reverse)
2) earnings – the earnings risks have actually declined a bit in the last few days. Loan growth is one of the best proxies of underlying eco…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 3 months ago
Barclays on the banks: Banks had a tough time ytd but have performed better recently along with the broader Value space. The stabilisation in Eurozone PMI and bond yields is helpful, as is the compression in spreads. Combined with depressed valuations and bearish positioning, it could lead to further short-covering, but we advise not to get…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Marcus Schatte are now friends 5 years, 3 months ago
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Wal-Mart's online push set to continue in the forum State of Retail in U.S. 5 years, 3 months ago
Walmart CEO: “We have been playing catch-up with e-commerce https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Famp%2Fstory%2Fguid%2F4195b730-a7e5-11e9-8659-7d9ae9c78947&link=sfmw_tw#https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4195b730-a7e5-11e9-8659-7d9ae9c78947?mod=dist_amp_social
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Seth Golden replied to the topic Morgan Stanley S&P 500 Underweight from Equalweight in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 3 months ago
Morgan Stanley´s strategist Mr Wilson:
1. We remain of the view that the consensus S&P 500 earnings forecasts are still materially too high for both the second half of 2019 and 2020 and that the Fed’s recent signaling of a cut later this month should not be celebrated if it is accompanied by an earnings, and possibly an economic recession in th…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic JPM Raises S&P 500 Target in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 3 months ago
JPM: “chaos is a ladder” – JPM going all Littlefinger (sort of)
raises SPX target to 3200“The upside pain trade to continue — equities climb the wall of worry”
“We remain constructive and expect corrections to be shallow with Value and Cyclicals possessing the most attractive risk-reward”
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 3 months ago
More JPM -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 3 months ago
Some notes from J.P. Morgan last week -
Seth Golden and Pavol Brndiar are now friends 5 years, 3 months ago
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Seth Golden and Peter Xie are now friends 5 years, 3 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 3 months ago
JP Morgan analyst notes -
Seth Golden and Huey Bible are now friends 5 years, 3 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 3 months ago
“We see a favorable set-up for hardlines/broadlines retail in 2H19 and into 2020, as drivers of spending continue to be supportive. With steady growth in payrolls, wage rates, and hence in consumer income, and strength in financial markets poised to boost consumer net worth, the backdrop for consumption appears healthy” -
Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 3 months ago
The bullish view going into earnings
1) the Q2 bar is low thanks to all the warnings and St estimate cuts2)CB-induced PE expansion will help offset reduced EPS
3)most of the bad headlines have been confined to a single sector (industrials).
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 3 months ago
History of the 10-year yield. Strip out the Failed Volker monitary policies and yields only go in one direction long-term. - Load More