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Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 2 months ago
1. China isn’t so much aggressively devaluing its currency as it’s giving in to market forces (the CNY would likely be much weaker vs. the USD if it were to trade fully and freely).
2. The 9/1 China tariffs can still be avoided – Trump didn’t condemn the entire trade negotiation process in his 9/1 tariff threat but instead took issue w/the p…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
Bernstein US Economist discusses the increased risks to the cycle with the trade war entering a new phase. He still sees the direct linkages of trade wars as too small… -
Seth Golden replied to the topic JPM on Monday post trade truce markets in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 2 months ago
Latest notes on S&P 500 and Trade:
1) the ~2850 level should still be thought of as support and moves up through 2900 w/o 9/1 resolution will likely be faded2)the odds of avoiding the 9/1 tariffs are likely above 50% right now
3)rescinding the Sept 1 threat doesn’t necessarily change the dynamic dramatically –the ~$178 figure would still sta…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Steve Popichak are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
There were 262 new 52-week lows on the NYSE yesterday compared to 252 at the low in May and 1,271 at the low in December ’18.
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
When the Fed cuts rates, banks take a hit. -
Seth Golden and mgrocki are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden and Chi are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden and John Ursu are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden started the topic Duetsche Bank upgrade in the forum Target (TGT) 5 years, 2 months ago
Target (NYSE:TGT) is on watch after landing an upgrade from Deutsche Bank to a Buy rating from Hold.
The firm assigns a price target of $99 to rep 21% upside potential. The PT is also well above the sell-side average PT of $89.35.
Shares of Target are up 0.12% premarket to $81.62.
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Seth Golden and Reuben Marcus are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
From JPM on U.S./China goods/trade -
Seth Golden replied to the topic JP Morgan's Mislav on Q2 EPS in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 2 months ago
“HF beta has spiked, equities have performed very strongly so far this year with P/E rerating, PMIs continue to weaken, DXY has broken out and the renewed trade escalation is a problem. Given these, and as we are in what is seasonally the poorest time of the year, markets could experience a few weeks worth of a pullback”… continue to believe…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic August VOL History from Jefferies in the forum Volatility Playground: Causation of the day! 5 years, 2 months ago
1. over the past 10Y, the second half of the year has been almost 4x as volatile for Equity markets then the 1H.
2. August is the most volatile month of the year, with the VIX higher in August 80% of the time and +20% on average
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Seth Golden and suggsm are now friends 5 years, 2 months ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
BAML on tariff impact for iPhones -
Seth Golden replied to the topic Goldman changes view on rate cuts in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 2 months ago
Goldman Sachs: Global markets are teetering on the edge of two narratives.
1. On one side you have global easing from central banks with the Fed cutting and ending its balance sheet run off and soon to hear from the ECB in Sept, this has clearly re-rated defensives and secular growers as TINA has been the prevailing theme re-rating equity…[Read more]
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Seth Golden started the topic CFRA upgrade in the forum Twitter (TWTR) 5 years, 2 months ago
Shares of Twitter Inc. TWTR surged 4.2% in midday trading Wednesday, to extend gains in the wake of the social-media company’s second-quarter results, after CFRA analyst John Freeman backed away from his bearish rating and boosted his price target by nearly 33%. The rally put the stock on track to close at a one-year high, and follows an 8.9%…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 2 months ago
After first rate cut in expansion conditions:
a) Real GDP change around rate cuts in expansions (since 1990):
Quarter before rate cut: 2.6%
Quarter of rate cut: 2.4%
Quarter after rate cut: 2.9%The data is similar back to 1971:
Quarter before rate cut: 2.4%
Quarter of rate cut: 2.7%
Quarter after rate cut: 3%-
Good morning, Seth. Thanks for this historical information. Do you know how many times rates were cut when unemployment was at all time low, major stock indexes at all time high, consumer spending high, etc. do you think this may be the aberration outlier?
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Yes, within a few of our research reports we outline some of these historic occasions. in 1995 market was at all time high exactly and they cut rates 25 bps. in 2001 employment all time low and cut rates. Consumer spending is always trending higher during expansion cycles.
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Good morning, Seth
Thanks for the historic info. With stock market indices at all time high, unemployment at all time low, consumer spending high, etc., that this could be the aberration outlier? In the past, rate cuts were executed when we were at the other end of the spectrum, yes?-
I think you might be referring to the most recent times we’ve cut ie. 2001 and 2007, which were both during recessions, not during expansions.
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Seth Golden started the topic Piper Jaffray Ups PT in the forum Apple Inc. (AAPL) 5 years, 2 months ago
Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson raised his price target for Apple (AAPL) to $243 from $230 after the company reported June quarter revenue and earnings ahead of Street expectations.
The stock in premarket trading is up 4%, or $8.97, to $217.75.
The analyst expects “limited excitement” around this year’s iPhone launches. However, as long as…[Read more]
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