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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Trump has averaged 10+ tweets a day since the start of 2016. “Starting in late 2018, however, activity has picked up substantially. The highest volume of tweets over the past four years has in fact come in recent months.” -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Volfefe corresponding chart -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
J.P. Morgan introduces the Volfefe Index… seriously! -
Seth Golden and Brian Strang are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Goldman Sachs forecast for NFP: We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in August … Our forecast reflects a 15-20k boost from Census canvassing activities, but a slower underlying pace of private-sector job gains in part reflecting the return of the trade war. …
We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. … We estimate avera…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Credit Suisse:
Reasons to be bullish: we are in the “yield-curve inversion sweet spot” for equities right now
The US yield curve inverted (2 year/10 year) on August 14th1. 75% of the time the market is able to rise in the following 6 months
2. average rise in 6m is 8%.
3. If ever the US yield curve did not work as a recession pre-cursor it is…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Marko Kolanovic:
Think employment data will suck…Weaker employment data stands to have a larger market impact moving forward
we recommend investors purchase SPY September 6th 292 strike puts for $0.94, indicatively
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Nice trade we completed in the premarket today as we recently shorted shares of $UVXY at $30.91 and covered here today at $29.76. Subscribe today and trade with us! -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
On verge of multi-decade breakout or breakdown again -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Per Morgan Stanley
3 observations from Morgan Stanley:1. Positioning is now lighter than even 2015 / 2016, and most cases since 2008.
2. $450B of equity has left Mutual Funds and ETFs into money markets this year.
2. Exposure-wise, L/S HF nets are < 5th %-ile, while Systematic leverage is in the 20-30th %-ile.
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Chart of the day is $TNX layover with Crude oil. Followed each other post the ISM data release. -
Seth Golden started the topic Bernstein Analyst in the forum S&P 500 Analysts Notes 5 years, 1 month ago
Bernstein believes the recent inversion of the yield curve signifies just a 2% increase in recession risk. The recession probability of the yield curve signal is continuous, but the common interpretation treats it as a binary recession/non-recession signal. While the YC used to be a nifty tool for interpreting monetary policy, various factors…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Pension fund deleveraging since 2007, from equities -
Seth Golden started the topic Not Much Has Changed in the forum It's All About The Economy 5 years, 1 month ago
Market fundamentals have changed little and stock valuations remain attractive – especially if you shop from the many cheap sectors.
There are many interesting themes, including the following:
Stocks can rise, even in this uncertain environment.
The trade story remains the most important, since it lies behind the low world-wide interest r…[Read more] -
Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Mislav´s 5 reasons to remain bullish:
1) Fed is easing, but without HY spreads or jobless claims spiking, both of which typically deteriorate into a recession. Crucially, if initial Fed cuts are not followed by a recession, the next 3, 6 and 12 months equity returns were historically very strong–2) Global activity momentum is likely to look be…[Read more]
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
Friday’s NFP May prove of greater significance than most are currently considering. Recall in Feb. 2018 the NFPs wave component accelerated beyond economists’ projections and investors feared it would prove a lasting inflationary contributor. Markets were rocked by 1,000 point moves on the Dow. Beyond the headline number and with companies loo…[Read more]
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Seth Golden and Andrew M are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden and Imran Bhatti are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden and Richard Wright are now friends 5 years, 1 month ago
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Seth Golden posted an update 5 years, 1 month ago
The Morgan Stanley QDS Pension Rebalancing Model estimates that there will be $30 to $40bn inflows to Equities from pensions through the first week of September, and an estimated $40bn has likely hit the market already this month – for a total of $75bn inflows from the first week of August through the first week of September.
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