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Morgan Stanley US Public Policy strategist Michael Zezas notes that the Phase 1 US/China trade deal likely helped avoid an early-onset recession, but wasn’t a game-changer that will enable global capex to find another gear. There’s also reason to argue that the onset of Phase 2 negotiations may work against the current US/China trade stasis. Pha…[Read more]

Over the past 15 years, average S&P 500 stock realized volatility has increased 10% from December to January

Jeff Currie: “Absent a major supply disruption, we therefore believe that price risks are skewed to the downside in coming weeks, with oil prices already trading above our fundamental fair value of $63/bbl ahead of the recent events, buoyed by an over-enthusiastic December risk-on rally in the face of limited evidence of a material acceleration in…[Read more]

January key events

Thursday, January 9: France – Pension reform negotiations. Start of the second round of negotiations between the government and trade unions on the pension reform.

Tuesday, January 14: United States – Comments due on proposed tariffs on imports from France. The US Trade Representative proposed tariffs on imports from France as…[Read more]

“We definitely saw traffic lower than we anticipated but it’s played out the way we expected,” said Mary Ellen Coyne, chief executive officer of fashion chain J. McLaughlin. “There was a slowdown in cold weather accessories. We don’t see people running to pick up faux fur hats or gloves. There’s a general sense that the customer is really look…[Read more]