MS US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson thinks Street estimates for the overall market are too high in 2H, and today he revisits as Underweight in Technology, and particular caution around Semiconductor stocks:

1. Even looking through the 3rd round of tariffs, the overall macro picture is not the type of environment that will lead to a reacceleration…[Read more]

HSBC cut the company’s target price from $180 a share to $174, citing concerns about trade tariffs on Chinese imports and shrinking iPhone demand. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/apple-shares-slide-as-hsbc-cuts-price-target.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

Morgan Stanley upgraded Target on Monday, saying it sees improving margins and a more, “balanced,” risk/reward for the retail giant. The firm upgraded the stock to equal-weight from underweight and reiterated its $67 price target.

“First, we think TGT’s margin erosion (a core tenet of our prior Underweight view) is likely to moderate in the nea…[Read more]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/google-stops-some-business-with-huawei-could-hit-its-global-smartphone-ambitions.html

1. In our base case, we expect a trade deal or truce over the next six months, though only after a bumpy negotiation process that

potentially leads to spikes in market volatility.

2. We still see a risk (30%) that negotiations will break down and the US raises tariffs on the balance of its imports from China

3. We see little chance (20%) of a…[Read more]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3464990-twitter-minus-1-percent-consumer-edge-starts-equal-weight

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/17/nomura-instinet-cuts-apple-estimates-china-trade-war-a-pain-for-earnings.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

Deutsche: Trade war heat is on
1. a large, unexpected change (perceived

or actual) to the global trading order would ensure the market correction goes well beyond the normal 5%

2. Second-order dynamics via financial markets and confidence will be more significant and less predictable.

3. There is also the possibility of further escalation by…[Read more]

JPM keeps 3000 SPX year end target
we maintain our S&P 500 year-end price target of 3,000 on 2019 EPS of $167 and 2020 EPS of $178

1. we still view a trade deal as the more likely outcome with the assumption that both administrations cannot afford another severe market collapse and significant slowdown in their respective economies.

2. aggregate…[Read more]

GS believes in a deal by end June
“Our base case is that a deal by the end of June seems most likely, as Presidents Trump and Xi are due to meet at the G20 meeting late that month. We think the risk of across-the-board tariffs has now risen to about 30%.”